Control of the U.S. House next Congress is on the line in the November midterms. Democrats only need to flip a handful of seats to win the majority: Republicans currently have 219 seats (including one independent who caucuses with them) to Democrats’ 214.
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But off-cycle redistricting, scandals and an unusually high number of retirements have made this a curious election cycle, upending competitive races nationwide while also putting once-safe blue or red districts into play. Democrats are favored, but Republicans still have several viable paths to maintain control of the chamber.
To understand the battle for the House, here are some key themes and races to watch. We highlight all the districts rated as competitive by the nonpartisan Cook Political Report, as well as several others we think could be surprising or are worth watching.
More House Republicans than usual have chosen not to seek reelection this year, opting instead to retire or run for other offices — and leaving behind open seats that Democrats see as key flip opportunities. Incumbency usually provides an advantage in campaigns.
Competitive after Republicans sought higher office
Post-redistricting pickup opportunities
Some vacancies may help Republicans
These races will test how much controversy matters to voters in a year that has seen no shortage of scandal in the House.
Texas District 28: Tano Tijerina (R) vs. Rep. Henry Cuellar (D)
Ohio District 7: Rep. Max Miller (R) vs. Brian Poindexter (D)
New Jersey District 7: Rep. Tom Kean Jr. (R) vs. Rebecca Bennett (D)
Partisan redistricting in states like Texas, Alabama, Florida, North Carolina and California may backfire or not be enough to combat other forces in some races. Election forecasters have found some districts drawn to favor the GOP are more competitive than expected in a favorable environment for Democrats.
Potential Texas Latino rebellion
Targeted Florida Democrats still stand a shot
California District 6: Rep. Kevin Kiley (I) vs. Richard Pan (D)
California District 13: Kevin Lincoln (R) vs Rep. Adam Gray (D)
Alabama District 2: Rhett Marques (R) vs Rep. Shomari Figures (D)
North Carolina District 1: Laurie Buckhout (R) vs Rep. Don Davis (D)
Some of the easiest pickup opportunities for Democrats should be GOP-held seats carried by Kamala Harris in 2024. But each race is complicated by different factors.
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Nebraska District 2: Brinker Harding (R) vs. Denise Powell (D)
New York District 17: Rep. Mike Lawler (R) vs. Cait Conley (D)
Pennsylvania District 1: Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick (R) vs. Bob Harvie (D)
Democrats are defending a host of seats that Trump won in the most recent presidential election. While several Democratic lawmakers survived only narrowly in 2024, the group is better positioned in a year expected to be more favorable to their party and where Trump has low approval ratings.
Nellie Pou of New Jersey and Kristen McDonald Rivet of Michigan are considered likely to be reelected in districts that voted narrowly for Trump. Others are just slightly favored: Greg Landsman of Ohio, Tom Suozzi of New York, Gabe Vasquez of New Mexico and Susie Lee of Nevada. Laura Gillen of New York is slightly favored in a Long Island district that Harris won by roughly one percentage point. These Democrats in Trump country are the most vulnerable:
Ohio District 9: Derek Merrin (R) vs. Rep. Marcy Kaptur (D)
Washington District 3: John Braun (R) vs. Rep. Marie Gluesenkamp Perez (D)
Most progressive Democrats, as well as candidates aligned with the Democratic Socialists of America, are running this year in safely Democratic districts. Some progressive candidates, however, are running in crucial swing seats, testing their theory that populist economic policies can win in competitive races.
Maine District 2: Paul LePage (R) vs. Matt Dunlap (D)
California District 22: Rep. David G. Valadao (R) vs. Randy Villegas (D)
Colorado District 8: Rep. Gabe Evans (R) vs. Manny Rutinel (D)
Michigan District 7: Rep. Tom Barrett (R) vs. William Lawrence (D)
California District 7: Rep. Doris Matsui (D) vs. Mai Vang (D)
These hard-right incumbents are fighting to defend their seats from moderates. Their candidacies test whether Republicans will be punished for running too far-right or can turn out MAGA voters to win.
Pennsylvania District 10: Rep. Scott Perry (R) vs. Janelle Stelson (D)
Wisconsin District 3: Rep. Derrick Van Orden (R) vs. Rebecca Cooke (D)
Alaska At-Large: Rep. Nick Begich (R) vs. Bill Hill (I)
Arizona District 2: Rep. Elijah Crane (R) vs. Jonathan Nez (D)
These four Republicans have held onto their districts as generally mainstream conservatives who usually vote with their party. They, at times, have overperformed Trump or surprisingly beaten the odds.
Iowa District 1: Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks (R) vs. Christina Bohannan (D)
Pennsylvania District 7: Rep. Ryan Mackenzie (R) vs. Bob Brooks (D)
Virginia District 1: Rep. Rob Wittman (R) vs. Shannon Taylor (D)
Michigan 4th District: Rep. Bill Huizenga (R) vs. Sean McCann (D)
These are relatively moderate Republicans defending their seats, testing whether moving to the center and occasionally bucking their party, while staying conservative on some issues, could win over left-leaning and independent voters.
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Arizona District 6: Rep. Juan Ciscomani (R) vs JoAnna Mendoza (D)
Pennsylvania District 8: Rep. Rob Bresnahan (R) vs. Paige Cognetti (D)
Iowa District 3: Rep. Zach Nunn (R) vs. Sarah Trone Garriott (D)
Virginia District 2: Rep. Jen Kiggans (R) vs. Elaine Luria (D)
Ben Binday, Dan Merica and Karen Tumulty contributed to this report.
