Polls released this week provide mostly positive news for Democrats as the midterm election draws closer. Information about samples and methodology are included in the links, and you can read here to learn tips for reading midterm polls.
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Polls by Beacon Research and Shaw & Company Research, sponsored by Fox News, found close contests in Michigan, Iowa and Texas’s key Senate races. The polls found Abdul El-Sayed, the Democrats’ nominee in Michigan, with a one-point advantage among likely voters. They also found Josh Turek and James Talarico, the party’s nominees in Iowa and Texas, respectively, with two-point advantages among likely voters.
El-Sayed also led Republican Mike Rogers by seven percentage points in a poll of registered voters conducted by Marist University. The race is one of the Republicans’ best opportunities to flip a Senate seat this year.
In the key battleground of Ohio, former Democratic senator Sherrod Brown leads Sen. Jon Husted (R) by eight percentage points among registered voters, according to Marist. Suffolk University found a close race, with Brown holding a three-point advantage among likely voters.
The polls mostly found the Democratic governor candidates in Michigan, Iowa and Ohio leading by greater margins than their Senate counterparts.
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Small polling leads for Democrats may not be safe in these states, as polls have sometimes underestimated Republican support in recent years, including in the 2024 and 2020 elections.
A Washington Post-Schar School poll of likely voters found the Democratic nominee with a slight lead of four percentage points in Virginia’s 1st Congressional District, which is currently held by Republicans and considered a national bellwether for control of the House. The poll also found the Republican with a slight edge of six percentage points in Virginia’s 5th Congressional District, which President Donald Trump won by 12 points in 2024.
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