The National Football League knows a thing or two about sports gambling. It spent years fighting its legalization, and, since losing that battle at the Supreme Court in 2018, has spent years navigating — and profiting from — its spread across the country.
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So when it comes to prediction markets, the league has a message for the Supreme Court: We know gambling when we see it.
In a brief filed Thursday, the NFL urged the justices to take up a case that could determine whether prediction markets are subject to state gambling laws or federal financial regulations. New Jersey regulators tried to shut down Kalshi’s sports wagering operations last year, but a federal appeals court sided with the company. Other appeals courts have reached the opposite conclusion.
Sports-related prediction contracts, the NFL argued, are in substance “sports gambling” — not the financial “swaps” that Kalshi contends they are under. They create risk “largely for ordinary consumers, where none previously existed.”
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“Prediction markets are overwhelmingly used for consumer sports gambling,” the league stated.
The business is hardly niche. NFL-related contracts accounted for $1.8 billion of the $3.3 billion traded on prediction markets on the first Sunday of this NFL season, according to the filing. Among the contracts the league wants prohibited are wagers on whether a kicker will miss a field goal, player injuries, officiating decisions and outcomes knowable in advance, such as whether the first play will be a run or pass.
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