The Washington Nationals find themselves in a tricky spot as the Aug. 3 trade deadline approaches. They were 50-50 heading into Monday night’s series opener at the Colorado Rockies and just two games out of a wild-card spot. But they’d have to leap over four teams to get there.
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That said, there is — for the first time in five years — some hope of making the playoffs, even if next season is more realistic.
That makes whatever the Nationals decide to do at the deadline particularly important. If they tear it all down again, their window to contend will be pushed even further away. If they buy, they’d be going all in on a playoff spot that may still be out of reach — even with added talent.
President of Baseball Operations Paul Toboni hasn’t committed to a trade-deadline direction, and how they play over the next two weeks will be crucial to determining that.
What could it look like if the Nationals decide to sell, buy or go somewhere in the middle? Here’s a breakdown of each scenario:
Potential trade pieces: Starter Foster Griffin (free agent after the 2026 season) and infielders Luis García Jr. (free agent after the 2027 season), CJ Abrams (free agent after the 2028 season) and Curtis Mead (free agent after the 2031 season)
At face value, trading Griffin — Washington’s best starter this season — when the team needs pitching doesn’t make a ton of sense. But Griffin will be a free agent after this season, and if the Nationals don’t plan on locking him up long term, there isn’t much sense in keeping him. Plus, they can always re-sign him after the season.
The Atlanta Braves, Los Angeles Dodgers, Milwaukee Brewers and Texas Rangers all need another starter for their postseason pushes. Griffin, who is on a one-year, $5.5 million deal, is an affordable, reliable rental who has pitched to a 2.68 ERA this season.
In return, the Nationals could receive a haul of pitching prospects to help set up their future. Last year, the Arizona Diamondbacks received three of the Rangers’ top pitching prospects for half a season of Merrill Kelly, who had a 3.22 ERA.
García has been a Nationals staple since he debuted in 2020 and is in the midst of a career season. (He was hitting .279 with 20 home runs heading into Monday’s game.) With a season and a half of control, the Nationals could get a decent return. Last year, when the Seattle Mariners acquired first baseman Josh Naylor, the Diamondbacks got two of the Mariners’ top 16 pitching prospects.
They could get even more if they paired García with Abrams, perhaps something similar to the six-prospect haul the Baltimore Orioles got when they traded Ramón Laureano and Ryan O’Hearn to the San Diego Padres last year.
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Abrams alone would generate quite a bit of buzz, too. Like García, he’s having the best season of his career, hitting .277 with 21 home runs entering Monday. It’s possible, though, that teams might want to move him to second base, which could diminish some of his value.
Mead could also be a trade chip. They got him cheaply right after Opening Day and could flip him for one or two prospects, or maybe even an MLB-ready reliever. Mead was hitting .256 with 17 home runs entering the series against the Rockies.
Potential trade pieces: García, Seaver King (the team’s No. 6 prospect) and Christian Franklin (No. 19 prospect).
If the Nationals are going to be buyers, the key is to give up enough to get a good return, but not so much that they are sacrificing their future.
Trading García would hurt some of their short-term production, but Abimelec Ortiz, who debuted earlier this month, and Yohandy Morales, who has a .908 on-base plus slugging percentage in Class AAA, could fill his spot. Both have shown potential for big power, and while neither stands out defensively, they should be able to do enough to man first base.
As for King, he’s expected to be major league ready next season. But if the Nationals keep Abrams — and Eli Willits, the No. 1 pick in the 2025 draft, is ready when Abrams hits free agency — then King might find himself as the odd man out. They could trade him now when his stock is high — he’s hitting .306 across Class AA and AAA this season — and get a reliever for their struggling bullpen.
Franklin is also stuck in a backlog. Outfielders Jacob Young, James Wood, Daylen Lile and Dylan Crews are all under control through at least the 2029 season. The Nationals could carry five outfielders at some point to give Franklin a chance, but unless someone is injured or declines, there isn’t space for another outfielder. Trading him now, before he becomes a Class AAA lifer, could benefit both parties.
Potential trade pieces: Griffin and García.
This seems like the likeliest path for the Nationals. Trading Griffin can get them young pitching that could help them next season at an affordable price. Even if they wanted to extend Griffin, he would probably be seeking a multiyear deal worth at least $40 million. It’s a new front office, so anything is possible, but it’s still the same owners — and they’ve been reluctant to hand out big contracts in recent years.
As for García, the Nationals do have major-league-ready options to fill his spot. They would be giving up some of their offensive production, but the benefit a middle-tier reliever could bring to the bullpen could outweigh the loss of García.
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