President Donald Trump is deeply unpopular, as are some of his major policies. A sizable chunk of the voters who do like him aren’t very excited about voting in the midterm elections, while Democrats seem very motivated to change the balance of power in Congress and at the state level.
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The top three issues for voters are the economy, the Iran war and immigration, a Washington Post-Ipsos poll taken earlier this month found. Voters disapprove of Trump’s handling of all of those.
Affordability and cost of living are particularly top of mind for voters right now, say Republican strategists. And while the data on the economy is mixed, voters have little good to say about it.
“The economy? I got two words: It sucks,” Michigan business owner Armetris Hare told my Post colleagues.
“We voted for Trump,” three-time Trump voter Lance Sulentic of Iowa told my Post colleagues, “and he did the opposite of what he said he was going to do.”
Voters also don’t really understand Trump’s signature legislative accomplishment, the tax-and-spending bill known as the One Big Beautiful Bill. A new Politico poll finds that nearly half of Americans say they can’t explain it, and those who can are more likely to say that it’s the wealthy who benefit but not them.
Many of the provisions do benefit businesses and the wealthy. And if the stated goal of the measures was job creation, that can take a while to manifest. Meanwhile, hiring has slowed.
To help pay for extending Trump’s tax cuts from 2017, the bill made large cuts to social services (including food stamps and Medicaid) that are just now beginning to hit Americans. Millions of Americans have lost food assistance, including children.
The Republican Party brand isn’t quite as damaged as Trump’s popularity seems to be. For decades, Republicans have had an edge among voters as the party they most trust to handle the economy; the GOP still has a slight advantage on that front, the Post-Ipsos poll finds.
As for policies, Republicans say they can run on the tax cuts, new tax breaks for tips and overtime, and “Trump accounts,” a program offering a $1,000 one-time deposit in new investment accounts for children.
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Tax refunds on average were higher this year because of Republicans’ tax cuts. But those may be fizzling out as Americans used the extra money to keep up their spending as the Iran war raised costs, economists say.
There’s evidence in polling that Republican voters who can be persuaded to go out and vote in November are more motivated by immigration, taxes and crime than other issues. That could help explain Trump’s focus on the Save America Act, with strict voting restrictions designed to prevent undocumented immigrants from voting (a statistically rare act that recently happened in New Jersey).
Trump’s efforts to get Republicans to redraw congressional lines may also help his party blunt Democrats’ enthusiasm edge. It will take significantly more Democrats to come out and vote than Republicans to win some of these supposedly swing districts.
“Though House Republicans have a three-seat majority on paper,” writes Erin Covey, an analyst with the nonpartisan Cook Political Report, “they have effectively created an eight-or-nine seat cushion in November thanks to the states they gerrymandered to their benefit.”
And, finally, Democrats have their own problems. Centrists Democrats are concerned about nominating far-left democratic socialists in such must-win states as Michigan. “It plays right into the stereotype of Democrats that the woke left is running the party,” said Arizona-based Republican strategist Stan Barnes, whose state has several competitive House races.
And the Democratic Party apparatus is struggling with fundraising, with donors still stinging from the party’s 2024 presidential loss.
But the deciding factor, strategists say, is simply who votes in November.
The Post-Ipsos poll shows that among voters who say they are absolutely certain to vote in November, Democrats have a 10-percentage-point advantage over Republicans, which would go a long way toward helping them overcome gerrymandering and retake the House — and even have a chance to take back the Senate.
Amber Phillips writes The 5-Minute Fix newsletter, a quick analysis of the day’s biggest political news. Send her an email here, or ask a question that could be featured in an upcoming newsletter.
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