There will be two Dan Sullivans on the ballot, which greatly benefits Democrats.
Alaska is one of just a handful of states expected to decide which party controls the Senate for the final two years of President Donald Trump’s time in office.
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It also has one of the oddest Senate races of the midterms.
The state has always had its own brand of politics and uses an all-party, ranked-choice voting system. That system has led to a November race featuring two candidates with the same name — one of whom Republicans claim was planted by Democrats.
The stakes are high for Democrats: Alaska is one of several redder states that they probably have to win — and perhaps could win — to seize the Senate majority.
Here’s what is going on.
To retake the Senate majority from the Republicans next year, Democrats have an uphill battle.
First, they need to keep Michigan and Georgia in Democratic hands. Neither race is a sure thing. Then they need to beat Republicans in Maine and North Carolina, both purple states, and then win at least two races in redder states such as Ohio, Texas, Iowa and Alaska.
In short, a lot has to go right for the Democrats. Winning so many tough races might be possible, though, because Trump and his policies are so unpopular: “The environment is benefiting Democrats so much,” said Jessica Taylor, who analyzes Senate and gubernatorial races for the Cook Political Report with Amy Walter.
Democrats managed to recruit former congresswoman Mary Peltola (D) as their Senate candidate. Alaska has only one House seat, so she has already shown that she can win statewide. When she won in 2022, she beat well-known Republicans, including Sarah Palin. Peltola narrowly lost her reelection bid in 2024, when Alaska voted for Trump in the presidential election by 13 points.
Peltola is now running on a moderate platform that prioritizes safeguarding Alaska’s fisheries, bringing down grocery prices, and protecting the state’s oil and gas industry. And she actually got the most votes in last week’s all-party primary.
Her main opponent is Sen. Dan S. Sullivan (R). He is running for a third term and — on paper — should win reelection relatively easily. Kicking out a sitting senator is one of the hardest things in U.S. politics, and Alaska has not elected a Democrat to the Senate since 2008. Most polls, however, show Peltola and Sullivan locked in a close race.
Sullivan is a Trump supporter who has quietly broken with the president at times. He voted with Democrats to try to extend expiring Affordable Care Act health insurance subsidies and has pushed behind the scenes to undo Trump’s cuts to Alaska’s federal workforce.
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Alaska Democrats cite high gas prices and Sullivan’s personal wealth as reasons that he’s vulnerable.
Complicating the race is a retired teacher named Dan Sullivan, who is running as a Republican. This week he learned he won enough votes in the primary to be on the ballot in November. In Alaska, the top four finishers in the all-party primary make the general election ballot, where Alaska voters rank their choices by first, second and so on.
This is a real problem for Republicans; they worry that voters in Alaska who want to send their current senator, Dan S. Sullivan, back to office risk marking their ballots for the wrong candidate. If the second Dan Sullivan — Dan J. Sullivan — performs as well as he did in the primary, or better, he could siphon just enough votes away from Republicans to help Peltola win.
Two candidates with the same name running against each other is not a normal occurrence. Republicans have tried to track down evidence that the second Sullivan was encouraged by Democrats to run. He entered the race at the last minute, and his campaign has links to staffers who have previously supported Democratic candidates.
Initially, Alaska election officials agreed with Republican complaints that there was enough evidence that his candidacy wasn’t in good faith and kicked him off the ballot. But Sullivan sued, arguing that he genuinely wants to effect change in Washington.
“I am running because I am tired of sitting back and watching our current Senator routinely fail to represent the interests of ordinary Alaskans like me,” he wrote in a letter to state election officials. “The fact that Senator Sullivan shares my first and last names adds insult to injury, motivating me to raise my hand as an alternative choice for Alaskans.”
He was reinstated by a state judge, who said Sullivan wasn’t technically breaking any state or federal laws to run for office. He’ll be on the ballot without a party identification, though.
Democrats say they had nothing to do with his campaign. They also contend that the ballot fight has consumed Republicans and is a distraction from the real economic problems facing the state.
Amber Phillips writes The 5-Minute Fix newsletter, a quick analysis of the day’s biggest political news. Send her an email here, or ask a question that could be featured in an upcoming newsletter.
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