{"id":1652,"date":"2026-05-26T10:37:47","date_gmt":"2026-05-26T10:37:47","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/movinginsiderusa.com\/?p=1652"},"modified":"2026-05-26T10:37:47","modified_gmt":"2026-05-26T10:37:47","slug":"a-runoff-in-texas-primary-will-test-trumps-grip-on-gop","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/movinginsiderusa.com\/?p=1652","title":{"rendered":"A runoff in Texas primary will test Trump\u2019s grip on GOP"},"content":{"rendered":"

The president\u2019s candidate, Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton, has faced numerous scandals, while Sen. John Cornyn has failed to excite the base.<\/strong><\/p>

Read more Trump fumes at Congress and courts for holding up his ballroom<\/a><\/p>\n

\n
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Senate candidate Ken Paxton speaks to supporters at a campaign stop on May 15 in Little Elm, Texas. (Ron Jenkins\/Getty Images)<\/figcaption>\n<\/figure>\n

Senate Republicans are bracing for an expensive general election in Texas as the state\u2019s scandal-plagued attorney general positions himself to push out four-term incumbent Sen. John Cornyn.<\/p>\n

Cornyn faces Ken Paxton in a primary runoff Tuesday, with public polling favoring Paxton. Senate Republicans have fervently backed Cornyn in the primary, saying he would be easier to defend in a general election against the Democratic nominee, state Rep. James Talarico.<\/p>\n

Paxton has faced allegations of corruption, financial malfeasance and infidelity. He has also struggled to keep up with Cornyn or Talarico \u2014 both prodigious fundraisers \u2014 in raising money. Cornyn asserts that Senate Republicans would have to divert essential cash from other competitive races to propel Paxton if he became the nominee.<\/p>\n

\u201cIt would be hundreds of millions of dollars, and there\u2019s still a good chance he would lose,\u201d Cornyn told supporters Thursday at a campaign stop in Houston.<\/p>\n

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Former president Barack Obama and Texas Democratic Senate nominee James Talarico, center, campaign May 12 in Austin. (Joel Angel Juarez\/Reuters)<\/figcaption>\n<\/figure>\n

Cornyn edged ahead of Paxton for a narrow win during the first round of the primary in March. But Paxton has captured the support of the hard-line Republican base, who generally turn out in greater numbers during runoffs. His biggest boost came last week when President Donald Trump endorsed him<\/a>, despite months of aggressive lobbying by Senate Republicans and Trump\u2019s political team to endorse Cornyn.<\/p>\n

\u201cIt was the kiss of death for Cornyn,\u201d Rep. Lance Gooden (R-Texas), a Paxton supporter, said of Trump\u2019s endorsement.<\/p>\n

The GOP is trying to defend a 53-47 Senate majority in the fall midterm elections.<\/p>\n

Republicans are putting up considerable funds to hold on to seats <\/b>in Maine, Ohio and North Carolina, where Democrats are investing tens of millions of dollars. Republicans also have their sights on winning Democratic seats in Georgia and Michigan.<\/p>\n

\u201cWe have 24 seats up this time. The Democrats have only nine, so we\u2019ve got a lot more ground to defend,\u201d Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-South Dakota) told reporters last week, adding that he was optimistic about keeping the majority. \u201cAs I\u2019ve said, when it comes to winning elections, it starts with quality candidates.\u201d<\/p>\n

Statewide campaigns in Texas are abnormally costly. The state has more than 31 million residents dispersed across nearly 270,000 square miles and two of the country\u2019s most expensive media markets \u2014 Houston and Dallas-Fort Worth. The 2024 race between Sen. Ted Cruz and Democratic Rep. Colin Allred drew more than $210 million in ad spending, according to AdImpact.<\/p>\n

Democratic candidates have a history of raising large amounts of money from outside the state, buoyed by liberal donors who view Texas as the perennial one that got away. Talarico has raised more than $27 million in the first three months of the year, more than most Senate candidates raise in their entire campaigns.<\/p>\n

Paxton, by comparison, has raised just over $7 million and reported having roughly $2 million in the bank at the beginning of May. Lone Star Liberty PAC, the super PAC spending the most to support Paxton, reported just over $1.9 million at the beginning of the month.<\/p>\n

Cornyn has never lost an election in Texas and was a pioneer in the 1990s effort to turn the state red. He was the first Republican elected to be the state\u2019s attorney general since Reconstruction and transformed the office into a national force for conservative policy. He also served previously as the second most powerful Republican in the Senate, from 2013 to 2019, under then-Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, and launched his own unsuccessful bid to be majority leader in 2024.<\/p>\n

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Sen. John Cornyn (R-Texas) shakes hands with Justin Bellar during a campaign event Tuesday in Lubbock. (Annie Rice\/AP)<\/figcaption>\n<\/figure>\n

That r\u00e9sum\u00e9 has given him a host of endorsements from the state\u2019s Republican establishment, including former governor Rick Perry, former senator Phil Gramm and Ross Perot Jr.<\/p>

Read more These Black lawmakers could lose their seats. They don\u2019t plan to go quietly.<\/a><\/p>\n

The support has also translated into money. Cornyn\u2019s time in Senate leadership allowed him to cultivate a rich roster from Texas\u2019s deep-pocketed donor class and from Wall Street. Perry\u2019s Lone Star Freedom Project super PAC spent more than $17 million on ads supporting Cornyn. One Nation, a dark-money group close to GOP leadership, spent more than $10 million supporting him.<\/p>\n

Cornyn has also tapped into those donor pools for his fellow Republicans. He\u2019s raised more than $414 million for his party over his years in office.<\/p>\n

Matt Mackowiak, a spokesperson for the senator, cast doubt that all of those donors would continue giving to the Republican ticket without Cornyn at the top.<\/p>\n

\u201cHis supporters appreciate the way he conducts himself,\u201d Mackowiak said. \u201cYou can\u2019t just transfer relationships built over two decades.\u201d<\/p>\n

Cornyn warned that having Paxton at the top of the ticket would not only endanger Republicans running in other Senate races; he would also be an \u201calbatross\u201d for Republicans running for the House in Texas. Democrats agree.<\/p>\n

\u201cRepublicans made their bed a long time ago when they tied themselves to an unpopular agenda of higher prices that\u2019s crushing Texans every day,\u201d Madison Andrus, a spokesperson for the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, said in a statement. \u201cBut if they want to nominate another extremist to dig themselves even deeper in the hole, they can be our guest.\u201d<\/p>\n

A spokesman for Paxton declined to comment.<\/p>\n

The Senate primary contest has already seen more money spent than any other in American history. Cornyn and has supporters in the Senate have spent more than $90 million ahead of Tuesday, according to AdImpact.<\/p>\n

Other marquee races have ramped up spending ahead of Tuesday\u2019s runoff. Rep. Chip Roy and state Sen. Mayes Middleton are competing over who is more of a hard-line conservative in a bitter runoff to replace Paxton as attorney general.<\/p>\n

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\"\"<\/figure>\n\n
Rep. Chip Roy (R-Texas) arrives in a pickup truck for votes on May 12 at the Capitol. (Graeme Sloan\/Getty Images)<\/figcaption>\n<\/figure>\n

The Senate Republicans\u2019 campaign arm has been particularly vocal in its disdain for Paxton. Joanna Rodriguez, the group\u2019s communications director, called Paxton\u2019s behavior \u201ctruly repulsive and disgusting\u201d in July.<\/p>\n

The group did not respond when asked what its role would look like in the general election if Paxton became the party\u2019s nominee. The Senate Leadership Fund, a super PAC affiliated with Republican leadership, did not spend in the primary and has maintained its neutrality going into the runoff.<\/p>\n

Gooden, the pro-Paxton congressman, said it would be a major blow to Republicans\u2019 standing among the base if they don\u2019t all rally behind Paxton if he is the nominee, after spending so much money on Cornyn.<\/p>\n

\u201cIf they\u2019re not willing to pony up that same amount or more to keep this seat in Republican hands, then I question their commitment to the Republican values that they\u2019ve been preaching these last several months,\u201d Gooden said.<\/p>\n

Cornyn said this month that he will \u201csupport the ticket\u201d in the general election, regardless of who wins the runoff.<\/p>

Read more A new Raiders offensive line and the same heavy workload: Ashton Jeanty\u2019s Year 2 test<\/a><\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The president’s candidate, Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton, has faced numerous scandals, while Sen. 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