{"id":1803,"date":"2026-05-27T14:11:03","date_gmt":"2026-05-27T14:11:03","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/movinginsiderusa.com\/?p=1803"},"modified":"2026-05-27T14:11:03","modified_gmt":"2026-05-27T14:11:03","slug":"why-texas-suddenly-has-such-a-competitive-senate-race","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/movinginsiderusa.com\/?p=1803","title":{"rendered":"Why Texas suddenly has such a competitive Senate race"},"content":{"rendered":"
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\"\"<\/figure>\n\n
State Rep. James Talarico, a virtual unknown in politics until this year, is Democrats\u2019 best chance in years to win a Senate race in Texas. (Callaghan O’Hare\/For The Washington Post)<\/figcaption>\n<\/figure>\n

Democrats haven\u2019t won a statewide race in Texas in three decades.<\/p>\n

But on Tuesday in a primary runoff, Republican voters nominated<\/a> a scandal-plagued candidate who has President Donald Trump\u2019s support but divides the rest of the party.<\/p>

Read more For ESPN\u2019s Mina Kimes, calling the National Spelling Bee is a \u2018homecoming\u2019<\/a><\/p>\n

And earlier this year, Democrats nominated a young, charismatic seminarian who many Democrats say has the ability to unite his party and win over disaffected Trump voters.<\/p>\n

Winning in Texas would go a long way for Democrats in their long shot to take control of the Senate.<\/p>\n

\u201cTexas is a huge political battleground this year,\u201d said Louis Jacobson, a nonpartisan political analyst and chief author of the forthcoming 2026 Almanac of American Politics. \u201cIf Democrats can win this, chances are pretty good they\u2019ll take the Senate.\u201d<\/p>\n

Here\u2019s what\u2019s going on.<\/p>\n

You\u2019re reading The 5-Minute Fix newsletter, a free analysis of the day\u2019s biggest political news. <\/i>Get it in your inbox<\/i><\/a> every weekday.<\/i><\/p>\n

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\"\"<\/figure>\n\n
Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton is not the candidate whom establishment Republicans hoped they would put up this year in Texas\u2019s Senate race. (Tony Gutierrez\/AP)<\/figcaption>\n<\/figure>\n

Democrats have come close to winning a Senate race in Texas before.<\/p>\n

This time, their hope stems from how voters feel about the Republican candidate. Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton beat<\/a> Sen. John Cornyn (R) on Tuesday, ousting a mainstream leader in the Republican Party.<\/p>\n

Paxton framed himself as an unapologetic, stick-it-to-the-liberals Trump ally. \u201cKen is a true MAGA Warrior who has ALWAYS delivered for Texas, and will continue to do so in the United States Senate,\u201d Trump wrote on social media.<\/p>\n

But Paxton carries baggage from many past scandals<\/a>. He was impeached by the Texas House in 2023 on corruption allegations and acquitted by the state Senate. He was also the subject of an FBI investigation related to bribery allegations (the investigation was eventually dropped). And he\u2019s acknowledged<\/a> to his staff that he had an extramarital affair.<\/p>\n

\u201cThere\u2019s still a good chance he would lose,\u201d Cornyn told supporters<\/a> of Paxton\u2019s chances in November.<\/p>\n

The Democratic candidate, James Talarico, is trying to present a stark contrast to his opponent. The 37-year-old Presbyterian seminarian holds liberal views and has said Democrats need to welcome independents and Republicans to their party by engaging them on religion and on cultural topics<\/a> that Democrats in Texas tend to stay away from. \u201cIt\u2019s not about left versus right,\u201d he told voters. \u201cIt\u2019s about top versus bottom.\u201d<\/p>\n

Democrats\u2019 hope is that Paxton keeps Republican voters at home while Talarico spurs a huge turnout within his party.<\/p>\n

\u201cPaxton is certainly demoralizing to some Republicans who don\u2019t want to defend him,\u201d said Texas-based Democratic pollster Nancy Zdunkewicz.<\/p>\n

After Talarico campaigned this month alongside<\/a> former president Barack Obama, Republicans have been trying to frame<\/a> him as too liberal, seizing on a comment he once made that \u201cGod is nonbinary\u201d and the fact that before this race, the state representative was virtually unknown. Paxton has falsely<\/a> described Talarico as vegan, because of a campaign pledge years ago to buy only vegan products. (\u201cI\u2019ve been eating barbecue since before Ken Paxton\u2019s first indictment,\u201d Talarico responded<\/a>.)<\/p>\n

To win, strategists on both sides say Talarico will have to forcefully push back on the framing that he\u2019s a liberal, defend or moderate some of his liberal policies and try not to alienate his own voters.<\/p>

Read more Climbers meet in Nepal to discuss the challenges of scaling Mount Everest<\/a><\/p>\n

That\u2019s where money comes in. Strategists expect the race to be extraordinarily expensive. But it\u2019s an open question how much outside money there will be for Paxton, whom the Republican establishment strongly dislikes.<\/p>\n

Earlier this year in Fort Worth, a Democrat won a special election<\/a> for a state Senate seat in a district that had previously voted for Trump by 17 percentage points.<\/p>\n

Latino voters there in particular swung away from Trump, said Manny Garcia, the former head of Texas\u2019s Democratic Party, as nationwide polls show Latino voters more broadly softening against Trump.<\/p>\n

The last time Democrats got close to winning a Senate race was also in a midterm election when Trump was president. In 2018, Rep. Beto O\u2019Rourke (D) came within three percentage points of unseating Sen. Ted Cruz (R).<\/p>\n

Now, Democrats are hoping that Trump\u2019s endorsement of Paxton carries much less significance among Texas voters, especially Hispanic men.<\/p>\n

\u201cIn focus groups, there\u2019s so many Trump voters who are just so disappointed and want some guardrails around him like the first time he was in office,\u201d Zdunkewicz said. \u201cThat\u2019s the big difference between now and 2018 that could make this an even bigger year for Democrats.\u201d<\/p>\n

Texas is one of the most diverse states in the nation, and it\u2019s big enough to be a country in and of itself. It has the largest Black population in the country, a huge Latino population, a fast-growing Asian population and a sizable White population. It\u2019s got massive metropolitan areas, suburbs galore and rural areas.<\/p>\n

It is among top states on wind power and solar power, and its governor is lobbying for AI data centers to come to the state. And, living in a border state, Texans have felt the effects of Trump\u2019s tariffs and his mass deportation campaign.<\/p>\n

\u201cEvery single issue, whether it\u2019s cost or affordability concerns, or corruption or the chaos of immigration enforcement, it\u2019s happening in Texas and happening in a bigger way,\u201d Garcia said.<\/p>\n

Texas is a Republican state and everything needs to line up just right to make a change. Even on a good day in Texas for the Democratic Party, Zdunkewicz said, at least 53 percent of voters identify as Republican.<\/p>\n

\u201cTo win,\u201d she said, \u201cyou need every single Democrat to vote for you, you need 80 percent of independents and a couple of Republicans.\u201d<\/p>\n

Democrats think that\u2019s finally possible with the matchup between Talarico and Paxton.<\/p>

Read more Iga Swiatek improves career record at French Open to 42-3 as she reaches 3rd round<\/a><\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Ken Paxton makes a win possible for Democrats.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":1800,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1803","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-interesting"],"yoast_head":"\nWhy Texas suddenly has such a competitive Senate race - Moving Insider USA<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/movinginsiderusa.com\/?p=1803\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Why Texas suddenly has such a competitive Senate race - Moving Insider USA\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Ken Paxton makes a win possible for Democrats.\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/movinginsiderusa.com\/?p=1803\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"Moving Insider USA\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2026-05-27T14:11:03+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/movinginsiderusa.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/d30f2b50c547513cf72c32c654b90888-scaled.jpg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"2560\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"1707\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"admin\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"admin\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"5 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\\\/\\\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/movinginsiderusa.com\\\/?p=1803#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/movinginsiderusa.com\\\/?p=1803\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"admin\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/movinginsiderusa.com\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/person\\\/22d40ab81790f6a361021763bb56ef03\"},\"headline\":\"Why Texas suddenly has such a competitive Senate race\",\"datePublished\":\"2026-05-27T14:11:03+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/movinginsiderusa.com\\\/?p=1803\"},\"wordCount\":1056,\"commentCount\":0,\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/movinginsiderusa.com\\\/?p=1803#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\\\/\\\/movinginsiderusa.com\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/2026\\\/05\\\/4b533906db8264be6ba9ec18994fc457-scaled.jpg\",\"articleSection\":[\"Interesting\"],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"CommentAction\",\"name\":\"Comment\",\"target\":[\"https:\\\/\\\/movinginsiderusa.com\\\/?p=1803#respond\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/movinginsiderusa.com\\\/?p=1803\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/movinginsiderusa.com\\\/?p=1803\",\"name\":\"Why Texas suddenly has such a competitive Senate race - 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