{"id":476,"date":"2026-05-16T17:05:38","date_gmt":"2026-05-16T17:05:38","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/movinginsiderusa.com\/?p=476"},"modified":"2026-05-16T17:05:38","modified_gmt":"2026-05-16T17:05:38","slug":"virginias-new-house-map-is-dead-democrats-think-they-can-still-flip-these-seats","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/movinginsiderusa.com\/?p=476","title":{"rendered":"Virginia\u2019s new House map is dead. Democrats think they can still flip these seats."},"content":{"rendered":"

Republicans won the redistricting war in Virginia, but several lawmakers remain vulnerable.<\/strong><\/p>

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\n
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Rep. Suhas Subramanyam (D-Virginia) says his party has a chance to pick up one or two U.S. House seats in Virginia in November. (Marco Bello\/Reuters)<\/figcaption>\n<\/figure>\n

Even after a Supreme Court ruling on Friday put a final stop<\/a> to Democratic efforts to redraw Virginia\u2019s congressional maps, the state will remain central to the party\u2019s battle to win control of the House in November.<\/p>\n

Virginia voters last month approved a map<\/a> that would have given Democrats a leg up in 10 of the state\u2019s 11 districts.<\/p>\n

The Virginia Supreme Court threw that map out<\/a> earlier this month, and the U.S. Supreme Court on Friday left that decision in place. The rulings were widely viewed as a major defeat for Democrats.<\/p>\n

The current maps, which led to the election of six Democrats and five Republicans, will remain in place for this year\u2019s congressional elections.<\/p>\n

Yet independent observers and members of both parties believe one or more seats in the state could flip from red to blue, given President Donald Trump\u2019s low approval ratings<\/a>, historical trends and some factors specific to the state\u2019s candidates and districts.<\/p>\n

\u201cWe have a chance to pick up one or two seats \u2014 perhaps three \u2014 and we can hold on to the six seats we have in Virginia,\u201d Rep. Suhas Subramanyam (D-Virginia) said in an interview earlier this week. \u201cWe don\u2019t have an even playing field. So we have to go on overdrive now.\u201d<\/p>\n

A game of musical chairs among Democrats that followed the court rulings has left some candidates switching districts and others suspending their campaigns entirely.<\/p>\n

Rising dissatisfaction with Trump creates an opening in districts where Trump won narrowly, Subramanyam said.<\/p>\n

Jeff Ryer, the Virginia GOP chairman, said it was \u201ca long time from now until November\u201d and changing political winds could also work to favor Republicans. All five Republican-held districts voted \u201cno\u201d on the referendum to redraw the state\u2019s maps.<\/p>\n

\n
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Rep. Jen Kiggans (R), who represents Virginia’s 2nd District, is among the most vulnerable incumbents in the House this year. (Allison Robbert\/AP)<\/figcaption>\n<\/figure>\n

But he said he expects hard-fought races.<\/p>\n

\u201cThere are going to be competitive races to cover in Virginia this year, and that\u2019s good news for Virginians,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n

Republicans hold a 217-212 House majority, with five vacancies and one independent. Republicans are ahead in a nationwide race to redraw maps<\/a>, and could gain a net advantage in as many as 10 or more seats by the November midterm elections.<\/p>\n

Here is what to look out for in House districts across Virginia. You can search your address with the Virginia Public Access Project<\/a> to look up your district.<\/p>\n

Rep. Jen Kiggans (R) is among the most vulnerable incumbents in the House this year \u2014 and gives Democrats one of their best opportunities to flip a red seat. Gov. Abigail Spanberger (D) carried this Virginia Beach district by about seven percentage points last year, and the nonpartisan elections site Sabato\u2019s Crystal Ball considers it a \u201ctoss-up.\u201d<\/p>\n

A crowded Democratic field is led by former congresswoman Elaine Luria, who represented the area for two terms before losing to Kiggans in 2022. Other Democratic candidates include physician Nila Devanath and former USAID official Patrick Mosolf.<\/p>

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The 2nd District might also hold clues for broader control of the House: The party that wins this bellwether seat has ended up winning the majority in every election from 2008 on.<\/p>\n

Rep. Rob Wittman (R) stands on safer ground in his Northern Neck and suburban Richmond district but could still face a tough race. Voters here elected Trump by about five percentage points in 2024 but then went for Spanberger by about two percentage points last year.<\/p>\n

Multiple candidates are pitching themselves as the right Democrat to oust Wittman, but national party heavyweights have been coalescing around Shannon Taylor, the top prosecutor in Henrico County, a Richmond suburb. She lost the Democratic primary for attorney general last year. Other candidates include Salaam Bhatti and Mel Tull, both lawyers.<\/p>\n

This district has not historically been competitive, but the rapidly blue-trending Richmond suburbs have changed that. Sabato\u2019s Crystal Ball considers this a seat that \u201cleans Republican.\u201d<\/p>\n

Rep. John McGuire (R) might not normally be considered a vulnerable GOP incumbent. His district in Central Virginia went for Trump by about 12 percentage points in 2024.<\/p>\n

But former congressman Tom Perriello, the leading Democratic candidate in this year\u2019s race, managed to narrowly win much of the area in 2008, when he represented a similar district in the House for one term before losing reelection. He went on to serve in the Obama administration and run for governor before jumping back into politics after Democratic lawmakers moved to redraw Virginia\u2019s maps.<\/p>\n

The current political environment could create a similar situation if Democrats manage to build a wave election, though chances are less than favorable: Sabato\u2019s Crystal Ball labels it a \u201clikely Republican\u201d seat.<\/p>\n

Rep. Ben Cline (R), who represents the Northern Shenandoah Valley, is perhaps the biggest beneficiary of the Supreme Court ruling.<\/p>\n

His seat, which would have been carved up into various blue districts, voted for Trump by 24 percentage points. Sabato\u2019s Crystal Ball calls it a \u201csafe Republican\u201d district.<\/p>\n

That won\u2019t stop some Democrats from trying to unseat him. The leading candidate to do so is Beth Macy, a journalist and the <\/b>best-selling author of \u201cDopesick,\u201d who has positioned herself as a voice for Appalachian communities.<\/p>\n

This district in the Fredericksburg area is Democrats\u2019 biggest wild card \u2014 and Republicans\u2019 best chance to play offense.<\/p>\n

The first-term incumbent is Rep. Eugene Vindman (D), who succeeded Spanberger in Congress. Kamala Harris carried this district over Trump by about three percentage points.<\/p>\n

State Sen. Tara Durant (R-Stafford) is among the many GOP candidates angling to compete against Vindman. But the heavy tailwinds boosting Democrats this year, in an area full of federal workers hit by Trump administration layoffs, could make that harder.<\/p>\n

The state\u2019s six <\/b>other incumbents are unlikely to have competitive races.<\/p>\n

Rep. Morgan Griffith (R) represents the state\u2019s reddest district in Southwest Virginia, while most Democrats \u2014 Robert C. \u201cBobby\u201d Scott in Hampton Roads; Jennifer McClellan in Richmond and Southside Virginia; and Don Beyer, Subramanyam and James Walkinshaw in Northern Virginia \u2014 are on turf that is expected to stay blue.<\/p>

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Republicans won the redistricting war in Virginia, but several lawmakers remain vulnerable.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":473,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-476","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-interesting"],"yoast_head":"\nVirginia\u2019s new House map is dead. Democrats think they can still flip these seats. - Moving Insider USA<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/movinginsiderusa.com\/?p=476\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Virginia\u2019s new House map is dead. 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