{"id":5738,"date":"2026-06-30T09:06:47","date_gmt":"2026-06-30T09:06:47","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/movinginsiderusa.com\/?p=5738"},"modified":"2026-06-30T09:06:47","modified_gmt":"2026-06-30T09:06:47","slug":"irans-leverage-over-strait-of-hormuz-snarls-trumps-push-for-a-deal","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/movinginsiderusa.com\/?p=5738","title":{"rendered":"Iran\u2019s leverage over Strait of Hormuz snarls Trump\u2019s push for a deal"},"content":{"rendered":"

The U.S. president is set on bringing gas prices down, but Iran has little incentive to cede its newfound power to control shipping traffic.<\/strong><\/p>

Read more Soccer fans clash with police in The Hague after Morocco stuns the Netherlands at the World Cup<\/a><\/p>\n

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Vessels in the Strait of Hormuz, as seen from Oman, on Monday. (Reuters)<\/figcaption>\n<\/figure>\n

As Iran and the United States traded limited strikes this weekend, both sides made clear they were eager to avoid a return to full-scale conflict. Less clear was whether the moment was ripe for a deal to end <\/b>hostilities.<\/p>\n

Senior U.S. and Iranian negotiators were set to travel Tuesday to Qatar, nearly two weeks into a 60-day window to negotiate a deal that would limit Iran\u2019s nuclear program. But Iranian hard-liners have balked at making significant concessions, and Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baqaei said that officials from his country did not plan to meet directly with Americans this week, despite President Donald Trump saying earlier that there was a meeting at Iran\u2019s request.<\/p>\n

Trump has made clear that his primary focus for now is on gasoline prices. He has lauded the decline in crude <\/b>oil prices, which has bought him some breathing room since he signed an agreement with his Iranian counterpart earlier this month.<\/p>\n

At the same time, he has complained that gas prices haven\u2019t followed suit.<\/p>\n

\u201cOil prices are way down. We hit $69 today. It was higher than that prior to the denuclearization of Iran fight that we had, which we\u2019re doing very well,\u201d Trump told reporters in the Oval Office on Monday. \u201cThe meeting in Doha is going to be perhaps important, perhaps not,\u201d he added.<\/p>\n

Later in the day, however, he complained angrily about gasoline, which currently averages close to $3.90 per gallon.<\/p>\n

\u201cGasoline Retailers must get their Prices down, IMMEDIATELY! They\u2019re too high considering that Oil is now at $68 a Barrel, and heading south,\u201d he wrote on his Truth Social site. \u201cIf Retailers don\u2019t do this, big problems lie ahead! Start targeting around the $2.50 a Gallon number,\u201d he wrote.<\/p>\n

That goal may not be reached any time soon, energy analysts said. Although crude oil prices have dropped, refineries are not able to get all the crude they need. Moreover, some refiners shifted to making jet fuel to make up for shortages in Europe, leaving less capacity to produce diesel and gasoline ahead of the peak summer driving season.<\/p>\n

With oil markets continuing to be top of mind, Trump has signaled he is willing to let negotiations play out. But the central challenge facing the U.S. team remains unchanged: Though battered by weeks of intense U.S. and Israeli airstrikes, Iran emerged from the war with new leverage and little obvious incentive to give it up.<\/p>\n

Rather than engaging deeply on major limits to its nuclear program, Tehran has focused on the prize it won as a result of the months of conflict: its ability to control shipping traffic through Hormuz, once a theoretical threat but now a demonstrated power. It has been able to close the waterway cheaply, using mines and low-cost drones against tanker traffic that carries 20 percent of the world\u2019s oil.<\/p>\n

Tehran last week used a drone to attack a cargo ship that it said was using an unauthorized route. Then Washington and Iran traded strikes on targets in the region before declaring they would resume talks.<\/p>\n

\u201cAs far as we\u2019re concerned, we\u2019re holding up our end of the ceasefire. Violence will be met with violence,\u201d White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt told Fox News on Monday. She said the U.S. side continued to seek diplomacy.<\/p>\n

But it wasn\u2019t clear that the conditions were in place for each side to yield a deal.<\/p>\n

\u201cIranians are trying to push the envelope to maintain as much control of the strait as they possibly can,\u201d said Suzanne Maloney, an expert on U.S.-Iran relations at the Brookings Institution.<\/p>\n

\u201cBut neither side is escalating in a way that would make it impossible to sustain the diplomacy. There\u2019s a clear preference on both sides to continue the diplomacy,\u201d she said. \u201cI think that will be true for the administration almost in perpetuity. There\u2019s no pressure on either side, I think, at this point for escalation or a return to the full war.\u201d<\/p>

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With Iranian hard-liners signaling little willingness to eliminate their stockpile of highly enriched uranium or accept other major U.S. demands, many diplomats and analysts were skeptical a deal could be reached within the 60-day window \u2014 or anytime soon.<\/p>\n

And Iran has shown that it can more easily close the strait than the U.S. military can keep it open, according to diplomats watching the dynamic.<\/p>\n

Even as the risk of attempting to move oil through the strait remained high, prices for crude are not surging to the levels they hit earlier in the war. They remain relatively flat at roughly $73 a barrel \u2014 well below the wartime peak of about $120.<\/p>\n

Traders remain confident that some peace framework will hold. Even with Iran continuing to attack ships, crude is moving through the strait. Shipping companies are trying to move dozens of vessels that have been stranded in the area since the war began at the end of February, helping keep prices in check.<\/p>\n

Experts say traders are reluctant to bet on prices going up while the White House continually says a resolution to the war is around the corner. They also remember how markets overestimated the lasting impact of Russia\u2019s invasion of Ukraine. Prices eventually collapsed as countries found alternative supplies and shortages proved less severe than expected.<\/p>\n

The same has been playing out in this conflict. China, a major importer of oil from the Middle East, leaned on its immense reserves and alternative sources of energy to cut those imports dramatically, relieving pressure on global markets. Reserves were also tapped around the globe, including big drawdowns from the United States Strategic Petroleum reserve. Exports of oil from the U.S. also rose substantially, pushing prices up domestically, but helping make up the shortfall abroad.<\/p>\n

\u201cAfter Russia invaded Ukraine, crude prices remained high for four months,\u201d said Bob McNally, who was an energy adviser in the George W. Bush administration and founded the research firm Rapidan Energy Group. \u201cThe market assumed the worst. When data came out in 2022 showing we did not lose as much supply as anticipated, prices collapsed.\u201d<\/p>\n

\u201cWith Iran, the market assumed the worst for the first few weeks,\u201d McNally said. \u201cAfter a ceasefire it then decided there is nothing going on here and spent most of the wartime shrugging off the war.\u201d<\/p>\n

But McNally said the relatively stable prices for oil futures at the moment mask a major challenge in energy markets: As Trump has complained, refined gasoline and diesel remain stubbornly high. Those prices better reflect current conditions than oil futures, which are based on expectations months ahead.<\/p>\n

Refineries and other energy infrastructure damaged during the war have not been fully repaired, and the risk of moving gasoline and diesel through the Strait of Hormuz remains high. Inventories have dwindled, leading energy executives to warn that prices would surge again to as much as $150 per barrel or more if the strait were not reopened.<\/p>\n

Analysts warn those underlying problems have not been solved. Production has not resumed to anything close to prewar levels in the <\/b>Gulf states. Most of the oil moving through the strait is the product that was stranded when Iran closed it. Shipping companies remain reluctant to send new tankers in, and producers are anxious about ramping back up production.<\/p>\n

\u201cIf the transits through the strait are just emptying the oil that was trapped there, that is not spiking the ball in the end zone,\u201d McNally said. \u201cSpiking ball in end zone is when producers restart their fields and get production going.\u201d<\/p>\n

Tommy Inglesby, head of Americas Oil, Gas and Power at the consulting firm Oliver Wyman, said the outlook for oil prices is hardly settled.<\/p>\n

\u201cWe are still in the crisis right now,\u201d he said. \u201cWe are in a new world where it feels like disruption in the Middle East is not a one and done.\u201d<\/p>

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Washington and Tehran are back at the negotiating table after a fragile ceasefire. 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