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<\/figure>\n\nThe election for Montana\u2019s next senator is, of course, in November.<\/p>\n
But many Democrats in the state and nationally believe the race could be decided months earlier, on Aug. 10, the deadline for candidates \u2014 including the underfunded Democrat \u2014 to drop out.<\/p>\n
\u201cIf she doesn\u2019t get out, it\u2019s done,\u201d a top Democratic operative working on Senate races said of Alani Bankhead<\/b>, <\/b>the party\u2019s nominee in the race.<\/p>\n
Here is how we got here: Retiring Sen. Steve Daines <\/b>(R) withdrew from his reelection campaign minutes before Montana\u2019s filing deadline<\/a> and immediately endorsed Kurt Alme<\/b>, the state\u2019s U.S. attorney, who had filed moments earlier. The timing left Democrats no chance to recruit a stronger candidate in response. Bankhead, a little-known Air Force veteran, later won the Democratic nomination.<\/p>\n Most Democratic hopes of denying Alme a win now rest with independent candidate Seth Bodnar<\/b>, <\/b>a former University of Montana president. Many Democratic operatives see Bodnar as more competitive. He has also raised millions \u2014 more than Bankhead and Alme combined.<\/p>\n Here\u2019s the issue: Bankhead isn\u2019t going anywhere \u2014 and is blaming Bodnar for this dynamic.<\/p>\n \u201cI am going to stay in the race no matter what,\u201d Bankhead told me, adding that she is comfortable with continuing her run even if doing so makes things easier for Republicans.<\/p>\n \u201cI won a primary with 48,000 votes. Seth didn\u2019t. He could have run as a Democrat, and he probably would have won, but he chose not to do that. \u2026 The split vote is ultimately his problem to fix because it\u2019s his problem that he created.\u201d<\/i><\/p>\n Abigail Tracy<\/b>, a spokesperson for Bodnar\u2019s campaign, said that he is \u201cbuilding a coalition to win in November\u201d and rejected Bankhead\u2019s suggestion that he is attempting to deny the will of Montana\u2019s primary voters.<\/p>\n \u201cThere is one person and only one person doing backroom deals to subvert the will of the voters, and that\u2019s Kurt Alme,\u201d said Tracy.<\/p>\n National Democratic operatives say Bankhead\u2019s decision will probably determine whether the party continues to treat Montana as a viable pickup opportunity.<\/p>\n \u201cIf she doesn\u2019t clear the way by August 10, then we are forfeiting this seat to Donald Trump before the race even starts,\u201d said Jesse Ferguson<\/b>, a longtime Democratic operative. \u201cStaying in isn\u2019t neutral. It is a decision to take Montana off the board.\u201d<\/p>\n The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee has also rejected Bankhead, who has complained about the party\u2019s lack of support<\/a>. \u201cThe DSCC partners with viable campaigns who have a path to victory, which Ms. Bankhead does not,\u201d committee Executive Director Devan Barber<\/b> told us.<\/p>\n So, yeah, a little awkward.<\/p>\n There is a belief among national Democrats that any pressure campaign from the national party would not only fail but probably backfire. And Bankhead said \u201czero\u201d Democrats have asked her to get out, including former Montana senator Jon Tester<\/b>, arguably the most powerful Democrat in the state before his reelection loss in 2024. Tester did not respond to our request for comment.<\/p>\n Jim Messina<\/b>, a top adviser to former president Barack Obama <\/b>whose career began in Montana, said he had not talked with Bankhead but was confident that she \u201cknows better than anyone what it means to put the mission first\u201d because she is a veteran.<\/p>\n \u201cA lot of us in Montana, me included, hope she makes that call\u201d and ends her campaign, Messina told us. \u201cShe isn\u2019t a serious candidate.\u201d<\/p>\n The response from Montana Democrats appears more nuanced.<\/p>\n The Daily Montanan reported<\/a> this month that 17 state lawmakers signed a letter to Bankhead and Bodnar asking for one of them to drop out and unite against Alme. And Shannon O\u2019Brien<\/b>, chair of the Montana Democratic Party, who pledged to us<\/a> earlier this year to back whomever the Democratic nominee was, voiced support for Bankhead<\/a> to the Billings Gazette this month, echoing Bankhead\u2019s own talking point that the party \u201cwill not subvert the decision that almost 50,000 Montanans\u201d made in the primary.<\/p> Read more Schumer pitches new federal agency to investigate corruption<\/a><\/p>\n But O\u2019Brien told us yesterday that the party is \u201chaving internal discussions about the best way to achieve the goal of defeating Alme and defeating the Republicans,\u201d including about what to do if Bankhead drops out, and that they have been \u201ccoordinating with legal counsel\u201d on how to approach the issue.<\/p>\n \u201cAlani is going to have to make a decision. Or Seth is going to have to make a decision. And we will be responsive to that,\u201d she said. \u201cThat is why we are preparing for any scenario.\u201d<\/p>\n Bankhead\u2019s withdrawal would not automatically clear the field for Bodnar, either. Under Montana law, the state Democratic Party would be required to name a replacement nominee. And Montana Secretary of State Christi Jacobsen<\/b>, a Republican, told<\/a> Semafor: \u201cThat\u2019s the law, not a suggestion. We\u2019re not interested in political games.\u201d<\/p>\n So why does this all matter?<\/p>\n Republicans hold 53 Senate seats, compared with 47 for Democrats and independents who caucus with them. To win control, Democrats must protect vulnerable seats in states such as Michigan and Georgia and net four Republican-held seats, with opportunities in North Carolina, Maine, Ohio, Iowa, Alaska and, yes, Montana.<\/p>\n If Montana is removed from the Democratic board, that path only narrows, putting more pressure on some of those reach states for the party. And there is a widespread belief that if Bankhead stays in the race, Republican money will look to boost her in the general election as a way to cut into Bodnar\u2019s better-funded campaign.<\/p>\n Bankhead, presented with that line of thinking, said it is just plain wrong.<\/p>\n \u201cThe Democrats that you\u2019re talking about are a very small number of OG elites who led the party into a bunch of losses,\u201d <\/i>she said. \u201cIf money mattered, Tester would have won because he raised more money. \u2026 If polls mattered, Hillary would have won.\u201d<\/p>\n Anthony S. Fauci<\/b>, the doctor who helped steer the country through the coronavirus pandemic, repeatedly invoked his Fifth Amendment rights<\/a> during a Senate hearing Wednesday, after he was subpoenaed to appear before the Senate Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs Committee, chaired by longtime Fauci adversary Sen. Rand Paul<\/b> (R-Kentucky). <\/b><\/p>\n It\u2019s been a dramatic few days for Fauci after Paul, ahead of the hearing, released more than 1,000 pages of Fauci\u2019s personal records, including a diary<\/a> that contained his musings about President Donald Trump<\/b>, how quickly his fame rose during the pandemic, and the interactions he had with celebrities like Barbra Streisand<\/b> and Julia Roberts<\/b>.<\/p>\n The hearing was undoubtedly awkward. Our colleagues Dan Diamond <\/b>and Anna Liss-Roy <\/b>reported<\/a> that Fauci told the committee that it \u201cpains\u201d him to invoke his constitutional right against self-incrimination. But he alleged that Paul was wrongly seeking to trap him in a misstep that could lead to perjury charges, despite the preemptive pardon he received from President Joe Biden in 2025.<\/p>\n Where this goes from here is why this story is worth watching.<\/p>\n Paul said after the hearing that the committee plans to vote next week on whether to hold Fauci in contempt of Congress over his invocation of the Fifth Amendment.<\/p>\n This sets up a very interesting legal question, given Fauci\u2019s pardon \u2014 and a preview of what Trump officials could face in the coming years. Trump has reportedly told people that he plans to offer mass pardons to White House staff when he leaves office at the end of this term. \u201cI\u2019ll pardon everyone who has come within 200 feet of the Oval,\u201d Trump said, according to a report from the Wall Street Journal<\/a>.<\/p>\n Those pardons might not necessarily stop the next Congress from getting access to former Trump officials. What happens with Fauci in the coming weeks could set up the possibility that, even with pardons, former Trump officials could face legal scrutiny in the future.<\/p>\n Virginia Monitor<\/b>: A lot has been made of the new Democratic primary map, with South Carolina going first, followed by Nevada. But the most interesting addition could be Virginia, which is now on track to be the sixth and final early state<\/a>, a move that could make the complex Southern state more important in Democratic politics.<\/p>\n Stateline<\/b>: A new report finds that the undocumented immigrant population in the United States was around 15.8 million in 2024<\/a> but is likely to have dropped in recent years because of President Donald Trump\u2019s hard-line immigration policies.<\/p>\n Philadelphia Inquirer<\/b>: You are being watched. Well, at least at the Liberty Bell<\/a>. The historic site has set up a new live stream to increase access to the bell, but that live stream has also raised serious questions about safety and privacy.<\/p>\n We wanted to ask you about Montana\u2019s Senate race. We wrote above about the awkward moment the party\u2019s Democratic ecosystem is going through. If you were a Democrat, would you support the Democratic candidate full stop, or would you back the independent who mostly aligns with your values and could have a better chance to win? That is our question for you: What should Montana Democrats do? Let us and your fellow Early Brief readers know at earlytips@washpost.com<\/a>.<\/p> Read more Bullpen struggles again, and Nationals drop series to Blue Jays<\/a><\/p>\n