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<\/figure>\n\nI find myself thinking a lot about vibes while covering politics.<\/p>\n
Vibes are a hard thing to describe, but I generally view them as how voters broadly feel about their lives, despite any data that may contradict those feelings. Vibes have been critical in recent elections.<\/p>\n
In 2020, the vibes around then-President Donald Trump <\/b>were all bad \u2014 Covid was raging, the economy was deeply impacted, and the president did little to turn around the feeling that America was in chaos<\/a>. A similar level of gloom surrounded President Joe Biden<\/b> in 2024: Democrats regularly pointed to economic data that showed the economy and prices were improving, but polls and conversations with voters made clear that the vast majority of Americans weren\u2019t feeling it<\/a>.<\/p>\n Which brings me to 2026. The vibes around the economy are bad<\/a> \u2014 polls and focus groups show voters feel like they are getting screwed at the gas pump and at the grocery store<\/a>, jobs feel harder to come by, and the rise of technology like artificial intelligence is injecting considerable uncertainty into the future<\/a>. Trump and Republicans routinely point to data showing voters have a dim view of the Democratic Party and prices aren\u2019t increasing as fast as they once were, but, given Trump\u2019s approval rating, it doesn\u2019t appear to be connecting with voters.<\/p>\n So is the cake baked? It\u2019s a question I ask myself regularly \u2014 and forgive the baking analogy, my guilty pleasure is clearly Prue Leith<\/b> and \u201cThe Great British Baking Show.\u201d But is the mood of voters likely to change dramatically in the three months left before Election Day?<\/p>\n We put this thinking to top officials at both the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee and the National Republican Campaign Committee: Are the vibes in this election set? Or is there something that either side could do to shift them?<\/p>\n The short answer is it depends on who you ask.<\/p>\n Suzan DelBene<\/b>, the chair of the House Democrats\u2019 campaign arm, argued that the cake is, in fact, largely baked.<\/p>\n \u201cWe absolutely have seen consistently the biggest issues that American families are struggling with,\u201d DelBene told us, referring to the economy, prices, the Iran war and the feeling that the federal government is out of control. \u201cThose continue and will continue to be the top issues.\u201d<\/i><\/p>\n DelBene said she thinks about this issue too, particularly around whether Republicans are going to shift their strategy on certain issues ahead of the election to try to change the narrative. She not only doesn\u2019t think that will happen, but she points to Trump focusing on issues like the refurbishment of the Reflecting Pool and his White House ballroom as indications that the president\u2019s mind is elsewhere.<\/p>\n \u201cIt\u2019s really clear, at this point, there\u2019s not much that they are going to do about it,\u201d said the Washington state Democrat. \u201cAnd they don\u2019t even seem at all interested in doing anything about it.\u201d<\/i><\/p>\n Republicans are less certain that the vibes are fixed.<\/p>\n While some Republican operatives we talked to over the summer have argued that gas prices need to come down and the war with Iran needs to end by the end of the summer if Republicans are going to have any chance at keeping the House, those working for House Republicans\u2019 campaign arm believe the cake is far from baked.<\/p>\n \u201cDemocrats built their 2026 strategy around an environment and a map that\u2019s moved against them since day one,\u201d said Will Kiley<\/b>, the top spokesperson for the Republican committee. \u201cDemocrats are strapped for cash, nominating unelectable candidates in key districts, and Republicans are squarely on offense.\u201d<\/p>\n He added: \u201cNothing about this cycle is settled less than 100 days out.\u201d<\/p>\n There is some truth to this. Kiley is correct that the Republican ecosystem enjoys far more money than their Democratic opponents, even if Democratic campaigns are raising serious money. And there is always a so-called October surprise before elections, and the roughly three months to Election Day is a lifetime in politics \u2014 the war could end, gas prices could fall and views about the economy could improve.<\/p>\n But that has not been the case in recent elections. In 2018, for example, Republicans tried to shift the vibes around Trump\u2019s chaotic first two years in office and their attempts to repeal the Affordable Care Act by talking more about the economic growth happening and the tax cuts they had implemented.<\/p>\n It didn\u2019t work, and Republicans lost the House that November.<\/p>\n It\u2019s unclear if 2026 will be another 2018. Democrats needed to net 23 seats that year to win back the House, and they did it by winning 235 seats in the 435-person chamber. This cycle, Democrats only need to net four seats from a midterm map that has been significantly narrowed due to mid-decade redistricting.<\/p>\n But John Della Volpe<\/b>, the director of polling at the Harvard Kennedy School\u2019s Institute of Politics, argues the \u201cvibes\u201d around this election are highly unlikely to change.<\/p>\n \u201cPeople are pretty well set. And one of the reasons is it\u2019s just not one thing. It is a stack of things that have been growing and adding a real anxiety to voters for years now. Because of that \u2026 it\u2019s hard to imagine a 180 or much of a shift,\u201d said Della Volpe. \u201cSome of the pressure could cool, but the vibes are pretty well set.\u201d<\/p>\n The pollster put it this way: Vibes are often how people feel about their own lives, and \u201care people\u2019s lives really going to shift in the next 90-something days?\u201d<\/p>\n How candidates talk about artificial intelligence, particularly fears around the technology, could be the most underrated question of the 2026 midterms.<\/p> Read more Amid a democratic socialist surge, the DSA asks itself: What\u2019s next?<\/a><\/p>\n And Guy Cecil<\/b>, the head of the newly announced American Horizon Project, is looking to answer that question.<\/p>\n The research project, which Cecil said has an eight-figure budget, will aim to shape messaging on what it calls quality-of-life issues impacting a broad swath of Americans, like the implementation of artificial intelligence.<\/p>\n Cecil hopes this research \u2014 which includes polling, message testing and direct conversations with voters \u2014 will help campaigns better understand how to make topics like artificial intelligence more relatable to voters. And his first piece of advice is for candidates to focus on how businesses, like health insurance companies, are using artificial intelligence to deny patient claims<\/a>.<\/p>\n \u201cAny time you are talking about AI, you need to be talking about the human impact, not in generalities, but with specificity,\u201d said Cecil, who has worked on top Democratic campaigns since the 1990s.<\/p>\n Private health insurers are using AI to determine whether a patient\u2019s claim should be covered<\/a>. Some states have regulated the practice<\/a>, but the federal government has been clear that it is eager to implement AI into aspects of government health insurance<\/a>.<\/p>\n Cecil\u2019s group found voters are deeply skeptical about the practice \u2014 and it analyzed two ads on the topic<\/a> that he said \u201ctested off the charts\u201d with key voters.<\/p>\n \u201cShould a machine have more say than your own doctor if your health care gets covered?\u201d asks the narrator in one of the ads, before pivoting to an attack on a hypothetical candidate. \u201cRich Johnson thinks so. \u2026 You decide. Stop Rich Johnson from ripping us off.\u201d<\/p>\n Cecil said most Americans \u201calready feel like they are getting screwed by insurance companies, and this is just another proof point in this argument.\u201d With artificial intelligence becoming a more politically salient issue, he argued that applying the technology to these kinds of decisions is how candidates can win on the issue.<\/p>\n \u201cWhen you put people at the center of the AI discussion, and you are clear in human language what the consequences are, you begin to see people have an \u2018aha\u2019 moment,\u201d Cecil said of this focus on AI in health care. \u201cIt is this confluence of, \u2018I am getting screwed, I have less control, prices are rising, and government and corporations are making all the decisions for me.\u2019\u201d<\/p>\n Colorado Newsline:<\/b> The United States\u2019 250th isn\u2019t the only major anniversary in the country this year. \u201cDon\u2019t forget us, it\u2019s also our birthday<\/a>,\u201d said Colorado Gov. Jared Polis<\/b> at a celebration of his state\u2019s 150 years of statehood yesterday.<\/p>\n Times of San Diego:<\/b> The San Diego Anti-Hate Coalition says the region has seen a sharp increase in hate crimes<\/a> documented by the city attorney\u2019s office over the last two months. The spike comes in the aftermath of a shooting at the Islamic Center of San Diego, which has left the city reeling.<\/p>\n Maryland Matters: <\/b>Thirty-eight people have died from heat-related causes in Maryland so far this year. It\u2019s the second-most in the last 15 years<\/a>, with two more months of high temperatures expected.<\/p>\n We asked about family replacing family in Congress \u2014 in reference to Sen. Lindsey Graham<\/b>\u2019s sister running to replace him in Congress \u2014 and many of you were clear you do not support the practice.<\/p>\n \u201cWhile it may not be articulated as a reason the public has such a low opinion of our elected officials, people resent those who are given a leg up anywhere in life based solely on their surname,\u201d wrote Paul Gutermann<\/b>. \u201cIt reinforces the impression that, in a phrase the President would understand, \u2018the game is rigged.\u2019\u201d<\/p>\n \u201cI think that, given how close the general election is, it was probably okay for Graham\u2019s sister to be appointed to replace him \u2014 for the interim. It makes absolutely no sense for her to be put forth as the party\u2019s nominee to fill his position in Congress,\u201d wrote Doris B. Mabrey<\/b>. \u201cIf she had ever shown any interest in such a position, it would be different.\u201d<\/p>\n And Pat Fogg<\/b>, a reader in Maine, said family replacing family is another example of corruption in politics.<\/p>\n \u201cYouth, intelligence, and integrity seem to be what the American people are demanding. New blood \u2014 new ideas,\u201d Fogg added. \u201cNepotism ignores all of that and gives total control to someone likely to be unknown, untested, and he or she hasn\u2019t lifted a finger to earn it.\u201d<\/p>\n We wrote today about how many recent elections have been all about one thing: Vibes. And how difficult it is for those vibes to shift in mere months \u2014 look at both Trump\u2019s loss in 2020 and Harris\u2019 loss in 2024. How much do you think the \u201cvibes\u201d of a moment impact who wins an election? What informs those vibes, and do you agree that they are difficult to shift quickly? Let us and your fellow Early Brief readers know at earlytips@washpost.com<\/a>.<\/p> Read more DC Open finals postponed to Monday due to thunderstorms<\/a><\/p>\n