In today’s edition … The unique affordability issues facing key Senate races … the security concerns surrounding Trump’s Qatari plane … but first …
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The median net compensation for Americans in 2023 was $43,222.81, just enough to buy the $41,600 Hublot watch (taxes and tariffs not included) that eagle-eyed internet users believe Texas Republican Senate nominee Ken Paxton was wearing on the campaign trail earlier this week.
As The Washington Post’s resident watch nerd, Alec was tasked with confirming the identity of the watch. Unfortunately, he wasn’t able to.
The watch certainly looks like a Hublot Aerofusion King Gold, but between increasingly good high-end watch fakes and cheaper watches borrowing design elements from luxury watches, it’s impossible to say for certain without the Paxton campaign’s assistance. (And they have not, alas, responded to Alec’s multiple requests for comment.)
But whether Paxton really has a $41,600 watch doesn’t matter. The narrative has taken hold online that he does, making Paxton the latest politician to learn the hard way that voters (generally) don’t like displays of conspicuous consumption from their politicians — especially not when so many Americans feel oppressed by rising costs.
Watches are one of the more obvious status symbols around, in part because they have identifiable silhouettes and the brand name right there on the dial. That makes them easy targets for political controversy.
Take, for example, Kristi L. Noem, whose gold Rolex Daytona made headlines last year. Credit where it’s due: It’s a great watch. However, criticism of her choice to wear the $50,0000 timepieceduring a visit to a Salvadoran prison known for its horrible conditions, to which the then-Homeland Security secretary was deporting migrants, was swift.
Or look back to 2023, when Speaker Mike Johnson’s Fossil watch was misidentified as a Rolex GMT-Master II. The fact that the watch actually cost about $50 instead of $12,000 didn’t matter — those who thought he was wearing a pricey Rolex, while reporting little in the way of earnings and savings, were up in arms.
Once upon a time, it was fairly normal for politicians to wear expensive watches. Enough American presidents wore a Rolex Day-Date in the 20th century that Rolex started associating it with world leaders in advertising campaigns — “Men who guide the destinies of the world wear Rolex watches,” read one — and the Day-Date’s bracelet was nicknamed “the president.”
But things started to shift in the 1990s. Bill Clinton’s cheap Timex — an American brand — was part of his “man of the people” appeal, and most high-profile politicians since have been very careful in their watch selection — if they wear watches at all in today’s smartphone-dominated world. Barack Obama famously wore Shinola watches, another American brand, during his presidency. (Though after his two terms were up, Obama traded his relatively cheap Shinola for a pricier Rolex Cellini.) George W. Bush had Texas oil money but wore a simple Timex with an American flag on it while in office.
Joe Biden is the rare example of a politician who started wearing nicer watches once he entered the White House. But he stayed away from flashier, precious metal models and his watches, while expensive, are all in the sub-$10K range.
The only time his Rolex Datejust or Omega Speedmaster really came up was in conversations about how tasteful his watch collection was. (Paxton’s potential Hublot isn’t inspiring any similar conversations — Hublot has a controversial reputation in the watch community, and many watch nerds out there are less upset about the thought of Paxton owning an expensive watch than they are about how tacky they think the watch is.)
The other obvious exception to the rules about expensive watches causing their wearers political problems is President Donald Trump, who has made conspicuous consumption part of his brand. He routinely wears solid gold Rolexes and Vacheron Constantins.
If you ever want to see a watch enthusiast’s heart break in real time, show them a video of Trump golfing in his $40K+ Patek Philippe Ellipse, a beautiful watch with a delicate movement that isn’t built to withstand the shock of being dropped from a moderate height, much less the repeated shocks of hitting a golf ball.
Voters said the economy and high prices are their most important issues this midterms, in The Post’s most recent poll. Paxton is facing a surprisingly tight race for a Republican in Texas, and there’s a possibility his watch imbroglio could hurt him among voters feeling the squeeze. But he’s also already facing myriad scandals, from the tawdry stories of his divorce to an ad running accusing him of stealing a $1,000 pen to, more recently, Trump himself questioning his style and taste.
Paxton’s behavior “speaks a lot louder than the suit he’s wearing that doesn’t look so great, or than anything, frankly,” said Trump.
Trump has not, at least yet, commented on Paxton’s timepiece.
I published a story this morning, with a lot of help from our stellar economics reporter Rachel Lerman, on the single most important affordability issue affecting each state with a compelling Senate race this fall.
For example, in very few states is the price of homeowners insurance a major political issue, but it is in Florida, where homeowners paid twice the national average to insure their homes last year — and where Sen. Ashley Moody is running for a full term after being selected to replace Sen. Marco Rubio.
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State Rep. Angie Nixon, who unexpectedly won the state’s Democratic Senate nomination earlier this year, sees the issue as central to her longshot bid to oust Moody.
“The property insurance crisis is a defining economic emergency for working families across Florida,” Nixon told me.
Then there is Iowa, where family farms have been hit by high prices on everything from fertilizer to diesel fuel.
Josh Turek, the Democratic Senate nominee in Iowa, argues that “the tariffs and certainly the war in Iran have hurt Iowa more than any other state. This is the reason why we’re one of three states already seeing our economy contract, and this is why we already leave the nation in farm foreclosures.”
Republicans have dominated Iowa over the last decade, and Rep. Ashley Hinson, the Republican nominee for the open Senate seat, told me the looming farm crisis would only be made worse by Turek and Democratic tax policies.
“We did not get here overnight,” Hinson said, calling helping Iowa farmers a “key focus of mine since I have gotten to Congress.” As for fuel prices that have spiked since the start of the war with Iran, Hinson said she “of course” wants to get fuel prices down, but argued that this moment was also a “great opportunity for us to help counter [high fuel prices] to help produce more of this homegrown fuel,” like ethanol from corn grown in Iowa.
You can read our full report — including details on how energy prices in Michigan and fuel prices in Alaska are impacting each state’s key Senate contest — here.
Bridge Michigan: A group pushing to require Michigan voters to prove their citizenship is asking the Michigan Supreme Court for ballot access in November. The Board of State Canvassers deadlocked last week on allowing the question.
Portland Press Herald: Troy Jackson is not Graham Platner. But the Democratic Senate nominee in Maine is trying to tap into the town hall magic that propelled the latter progressive to the nomination, a not-so-subtle contrast to Maine Sen. Susan Collins (R), who is not a town hall regular.
The Blade (Ohio): Flock cameras have joined data centers as a bipartisan target.
We asked you about expanding the Supreme Court, and there was plenty of division.
“This is a pretty useless idea,” wrote Phil Morris. “If Republicans can act in bad faith to pack a court of 9 justices with their preferred choices, nothing will stop them from doing the same thing with 13 justices.”
Others, like Steven Alan Honley, argued it was imperative.
“Respectfully, I reject the premise of your question,” Steven wrote. “Trumplicans have already packed the Supreme Court, so what we’re talking about is redressing that balance. And yes, absolutely, if Democrats achieve a trifecta in 2028, the new president should promptly nominate, and have the Senate confirm, four new justices, bringing the total to 13 — one for each federal circuit.”
And Neil Rauch wrote, “The composition of the Supreme Court HAS to be modified to include more voices and minimize the ability of it to bend to the will of one man who expects loyalty over sound legal judgment.”
And Danae Bixler said expanding the court was one idea, but argued for term limits, staggered terms so “no single president can stack the court,” and requiring Senate confirmation with a “reasonable” amount of time allowed to consider a nomination.
“Sadly, there is no quick fix for the mess we are in if we want to avoid making new mistakes,” wrote Danae.
We wrote today about the politics of conspicuous consumption and expensive timepieces. Simple question: Do you care about politicians who wear expensive clothes or accessories? Let us and your fellow Early Brief readers know at [email protected].
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