In today’s edition … Don’t count on gas prices dropping quickly with an Iran deal … How do Americans feel about the nation at its 250th? … but first …
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Donald Trump-backed candidates rarely lose in Republican primaries.
Last night’s gubernatorial race in Georgia was an exception: Billionaire health care executive Rick Jackson won the Republican runoff for governor, defeating Georgia Lt. Gov. Burt Jones in a close race. Both Trump and Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp had endorsed Jones.
Trump did notch a win in the state’s Senate primary — Rep. Mike Collins, whom Trump backed, defeated former football coach Derek Dooley — but the loss stands out because of how rare it is for the president.
Our colleague Praveena Somasundaram has more on everything that happened in Georgia.
In Iowa, Trump’s pick for governor, Rep. Randy Feenstra, lost to businessman Zach Lahn. On Tuesday, the president’s endorsement in the Oklahoma governor’s race was not enough for his candidate to avoid a runoff.
A streak of Trump losses could undercut his strong grip on the GOP that has defined the last decade of Republican politics. But he remains a powerful force, as evidenced by races in Kentucky, Louisiana and Texas, where his preferred candidates ousted incumbents this year, and several races Tuesday where they also won. Read more here.
In D.C., Janeese Lewis George took an early and sizable lead in D.C.’s Democratic mayoral primary on Tuesday based on preliminary vote tallies, though the Associated Press had not projected a winner in the race as of early Wednesday. Read more from Jenny Gathright here.
President Donald Trump announced what he described as a peace deal with Iran on Sunday like an announcer kicking off a car race: “Ships of the World, start your engines. Let the oil flow!”
But even if the fighting stops and the Strait of Hormuz begins reopening, the economic damage won’t unwind nearly as fast.
Ships still have to move. Oil still has to arrive. Damaged infrastructure has to be repaired. And prices that shot up quickly during the war may fall far more slowly — a reality that could complicate the political future of a president and Republican party desperate to reverse dour polling on the way the economy has been handled over the past 18 months.
“It’s just not a very simple ‘flip a switch type thing,’” said Scott Lincicome, vice president of general economics at the Cato Institute. “You need inventories to be replenished.”
All of that takes time and more effort than might initially be obvious, with oil infrastructure in the Middle East having been damaged or destroyed in the conflict. Ships, too, may need some TLC, with the Wall Street Journal reporting yesterday that sitting around unused for more than 100 days in warm water hasn’t been good for them.
Repairing the oil production infrastructure and world trade could take weeks, maybe even months, experts said. That means it will likely take even longer for lower gas prices to arrive at the pump.
Max Pyziur, who oversees transportation and fuel projects at the Energy Policy Research Foundation, says petroleum products tend to “rise like a rock, drop like a feather”: Prices quickly shoot up when there’s a shock to the market and only slowly return to a lower point once the shock passes.
Experts say the best-case scenario — of which they’re skeptical at this point — is that gas prices return to about $3 per gallon sometime this fall and inflation trends downward in the coming months. Such an outcome would require everything working perfectly, and not just between the United States and Iran.
“Every time there is a little hiccup in Israel, Lebanon, surrounding areas, things might seize up a little bit,” Lincicome pointed out.
Gas and oil prices have gotten the most attention throughout the conflict, but the Strait of Hormuz is a major thoroughfare for trade in general, and everything from fertilizers to steel was impacted by the supply chain disruption brought on by the strait’s closure.
Our colleague David J. Lynch recently traveled to North Carolina — home to a high-profile Senate race this year — and found voters were unhappy about much more than high gas prices.
“There’s a lot of things that I’ve once liked in my life that I just have to do without,” Willie Brown, a 55-year-old municipal worker in Durham, told Lynch. Brown said rising gas prices mean he is simply buying less beef and has stopped snacking on Doritos after repeated price hikes. Those little things may seem trivial, but those decisions will likely stick with voters long after prices go back down.
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Once the strait opens and trade returns to normal, factories will have to be reopened and exports will take some time to normalize. Some prices will still lag behind.
“Farmers have already planted and they’ve already paid higher prices for fertilizer,” Lincicome said. “So there’s a big question about how does that trickle into food prices when those crops are finally out of the ground? We won’t know that for months.”
The war with Iran drove inflation in the U.S. to 4.2 percent in May, the first time in three years that inflation has crossed 4 percent. Lincicome anticipates inflation may start to decline as trade ramps up, but it could take months for inflation metrics to drop to pre-war levels.
Trump and Republicans are hoping the best-case scenario happens and the U.S. economy returns to normal by the fall, just in time for the midterms. But Democrats think Republicans could pay a political price, even if there’s a rapid economic recovery.
“It’s a long way till November and a lot could happen,” said Leslie Martes, CEO of Forward Majority, a Democratic super PAC focused on state legislative races. “But people aren’t getting their money back. They’re not going to get their money for what they spent on that gas.”
Those feelings, said Martes, won’t go away easily. “The cost of living is so astronomical. Who else do they have to blame for that besides … Donald Trump?”
How do Americans feel about the country as it approaches its 250th birthday?
Proud, yes. But also uneasy.
A new survey from the Public Religion Research Institute finds that just over half of Americans — 51 percent — say they are extremely or very proud to be American. Slightly fewer, 49 percent, say they are extremely or very proud of the country’s 250-year history.
That is a steep drop from 2013, when 82 percent of Americans said they were extremely or very proud to be American.
The poll finds two clear reasons for this:
So as the country prepares for a major national celebration, Americans seem to be carrying two thoughts at once: pride in the idea of their country and deep frustration with the way their country is working.
Santa Monica Daily Press: A new study led by UCLA researchers finds that air pollution has been linked to inflammation during pregnancy, a trend that raises the risk of preterm birth.
Texas Tribune: A Muslim in Texas attempted to find community in the Texas Republican Party. He ended up “shunned and rejected by members as they espoused themes of party unity ahead of the November election.”
We have been inundated with dad jokes. And remember — this section is for your health.
From Joe Kosloski:
“What’s purple and conquered the world? A – Alexander the Grape! I have been telling this joke for 60+ years.”
From Alice Kopunovitz:
“What’s Irish and sits in the sun? Pati’o furniture.”
From Henry Maurer:
“As we drove past a cemetery, my dad posed the question, ‘Do you know how many dead people are in that cemetery?’ When my sister and I couldn’t come up with an answer, he said, ‘All of them.’”
From Chip Mather:
“How do you know it’s a Dad Joke? When it’s apparent.”
From Jim Alverson:
“Why does everyone like Mr. Mushroom? Because he’s such a fun-guy!”
And from Bronwyn Belling:
“What time is it when you go to the dentist? Tooth-hurty.”
In all seriousness, Barry Spivey sent us a heartfelt response to our question about how humor has helped people connect with their kids.
“It is definitely the case that laughing with your children is bonding,” wrote Spivey. “I read to my son a lot when he was young. My fondest memories are of our uproarious laughter when reading the misadventures of Calvin & Hobbes. One of my most appreciated gifts to my adult son was a complete set of Calvin & Hobbes to match my own. At age 80 I still pull out a volume occasionally to remind myself of those hilarious, treasured moments.”
President Donald Trump said this week that the United States, as part of a deal with Iran, would not invest in the country. “We are not investing any money in Iran, by the way,” he said. But what do you think: Should the U.S. invest in Iran in the wake of the war? Past administrations have seen economic ties as a way to preempt war. What do you think? Let us and your fellow Early Brief readers know at [email protected].
Thanks for reading. You can follow Dan and Matthew on X: @merica and @matthewichoi.
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