In today’s edition … Tom Kean Jr. returns this week, but to what? … We ask you about Watergate … but first …
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What is the state of the United States’ ceasefire with Iran?
It’s a legitimate question after a weekend that saw four straight days of conflict over the Strait of Hormuz, with the U.S. military launching airstrikes against targets in Iran and Iran targeting U.S. interests in the region.
Our colleagues Victoria Craw and Suzan Haidamous have everything you need to know about the strikes that represent the latest threat to the ceasefire between the two nations.
There isn’t a lot for Republicans to be excited about ahead of November’s elections. President Donald Trump’s numbers aren’t good, voters are giving Republicans poor ratings on handling the economy, and the main midterm battlefield — the nation’s sweeping suburbs — has seemingly shifted to the left.
But Republicans tasked with holding the House are cautiously optimistic that another part of the country — the roughly 2,000-mile border between the United States and Mexico — could provide their party with a bulwark against losses elsewhere.
The reasons are varied, from redistricting that has made races in Texas more favorable for Republicans to the way Trump performed with Latino voters in 2024.
“They are tired of having representation, specifically Democrats, who have historically abandoned them,” said Eric Flores, a Republican Army veteran and lawyer who is running in the South Texas district around Brownsville. The district is currently represented by Rep. Vicente Gonzalez (D-Texas). “So, why is there optimism? It’s because they want to continue to see results. They saw that with President Trump on day one.”
The districts in question extend from Flores’s would-be district in South Texas to Southern California. The most competitive races include the district currently represented by Rep. Henry Cuellar (D) around Laredo, Texas; the Southern New Mexico race represented by Rep. Gabriel Vasquez (D) and the Southern Arizona district around Tucson represented by Rep. Juan Ciscomani (R).
Republicans are particularly hopeful in their ability to recruit Tano Tijerina, a Webb County Judge, in the race against Cuellar, and Greg Cunningham, a Marine and police officer, in the race against Vasquez. They note that the candidates in their most targeted border districts are Hispanic, and they are optimistic that if they flip two Democratic-held districts, the party would control the entire U.S.-Mexico border in Texas, leaving only the district around El Paso in Democratic control.
“When talking about the 2026 battlefield, most people immediately think of suburban swing districts,” said a Republican operative working on House races. “But a compelling story is unfolding on the border, where Republicans are well-positioned to potentially represent nearly the entire Texas-Mexico border and along vast parts of the New Mexico and Arizona borders.”
The question for Republicans, however, is less about their recruits and more about the national environment in which they are running. Democrats have long argued that Trump’s 2024 success with Latinos was a high-water mark for the party, not an entire reshuffling of the electorate.
And there is plenty of data to back that up. A series of polls have shown Latino voters souring on Trump personally, have rethought their 2024 vote, and are growing skeptical of how Republicans have handled the economy over the last year, the issue that defined Trump’s campaign.
“That is the number one demographic that the Trump administration is losing,” said Katy Padilla Stout, a former teacher who is running as a Democrat for a congressional seat that represents hundreds of miles of the border from outside El Paso to south of Del Rio.
Padilla Stout said first-time Trump voters in her district — many of whom are Latino — said there was “a lot of discontent” with the Biden administration, so they “decided to switch sides, go ahead and vote for President Trump and hope that things would get better.”
“They have seen in real time that that is not the case,” she said. “I think now they recognize that the grass isn’t always greener.”
The competitiveness of these districts will depend on two things: whether Latino voters actually flee Republicans in the numbers that polls are showing and how successful Texas Republicans were in redistricting these border districts.
Texas Gov. Greg Abbott “launched a redistricting war to save the Republican Congress, gambling that Latino voters will fall in line,” said Xochitl Hinojosa, a longtime Democratic operative from Texas whose sister, Gina Hinojosa, is the Democratic nominee for governor. “They won’t. … Conservative Latinos were promised lower prices, and instead, their businesses are struggling because of tariffs and large-scale, inhumane ICE raids.”
Take the district Padilla Stout is vying to represent. Where the old district lines made it somewhat competitive in a truly good year for Democrats, the newly drawn lines would have resulted in Trump winning it by 15 points in 2024.
The same is true in the district Flores hopes to represent. While the district was left-leaning before redistricting, it is now far more right-leaning. Under the new district maps, Trump would have won the district by 10 points.
The question for Democrats is whether the shift in Latino voting habits in 2024 will be sustained two years later. If it is not, some of these races could be far more competitive than Republicans had hoped.
To that end, Flores hinted that he was interested in seeing Trump focus on affordability ahead of the 2026 midterms.
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“Everybody’s concerned about affordability,” Flores said. “We need to bring forth affordability.”
Trump recently declined to sign a housing affordability bill, refusing to do so until the Senate passes a sweeping election security law. Flores said he understands the focus on election security but argued both need to get done.
“We have to also focus on the integrity of our elections, and that’s what the president is demanding,” Flores said. “At the same time, again, a major piece for our constituents, not only here in Texas 34, but throughout the country, is some affordability for our housing.”
This is the week that Rep. Tom Kean Jr. returns to Congress.
We have written about the mysterious backstory of Kean’s disappearance — and the agita it has caused many Republicans focused on keeping House control next year. Kean has disclosed he is dealing with an unspecified “personal medical issue,” but that has done little to assuage Republican worries.
Harrison Neely, Kean’s spokesperson, told our colleagues Alexei Koseff and Maegan Vazquez last week that Kean would be returning this week. “Congressman Kean is eager to return to in-person work on June 30 and resume a full schedule,” he said.
And Kean was seen for the first time in months by a New York Times reporter who simply knocked on his front door. “I’ll talk to you next week,” he said.
Kean’s time away from Congress had become a source of growing alarm for his party in Washington, where Republicans fear his prolonged absence could cost them his swing seat — and possibly their House majority. Since he last voted in the House on March 5, Kean has picked up arguably the most challenging primary opponent he could have faced in Rebecca Bennett, a former Navy helicopter pilot. And Republicans have not been shy about their frustration with Kean — particularly in his decision not to disclose anything about his absence.
“Elected officials, especially in competitive districts, are held to a different standard and transparency comes with the job,” a Republican House leadership aide told us last month. “Republicans have a swing seat to protect and a razor-thin majority.”
So what does this mean for the next few days? Kean will undoubtedly be a focus for both lawmakers and reporters when he returns. And he has pledged to “be completely transparent as to the nature of my medical condition” upon his return.
How Kean does that will go a long way to assuaging Republican concerns around their candidate in one of the nation’s most competitive races this year.
The Post & Courier (South Carolina): Migration to South Carolina is remaking the state, with a flood of retirees and working families reshaping one of the nation’s fastest-growing states.
Santa Fe New Mexican: New Mexico Gov. Michelle Lujan Grisham has asked her attorney general to investigate reports that federal agents allowed “eye-popping amounts of fentanyl to flood the state in an apparent bid to build larger cases.”
Mississippi Free Press: Gov. Tate Reeves may call a special legislative session to redistrict the state before January 2027. “I would not be surprised if there is a special session to deal with redistricting sometime between now and when the next legislative session begins, but we will definitely have our redistricting done before the 2027 election,” Reeves said.
On Friday, we asked about the amount of money in politics — of a story on the megadonors pouring more than $1.3 billion into the 2026 election — and whether it has changed your view of giving to political campaigns you support.
“I’m glad you asked this question; I am furious about it. I gave ‘the maximum’ to Amy Klobuchar and to Kamala Harris, and, wow, do I feel like a fool,” wrote Alexandra Matthews. “Thousands of dollars; big for ME but ‘nothing,’ really. Ugh. Never again. I’m never giving money to ANY campaign again.”
Doris B. Mabrey advocated returning to publicly funded campaigns.
“Campaigns should be severely limited in duration and should be paid for with tax money. All candidates would get the same amount of tax money — the amount based on whether it’s a primary, a local election, a general election. Each jurisdiction would be able to determine how much total tax money would be allocated for elections. The money should come from regular taxes — not from some additional donation that individuals give that would go for this,” Mabrey wrote.
And Roger Williams added, “Money can’t buy happiness, but it can buy mindspace. Enough money thrown into a campaign for a single candidate, and all you hear about is one side of the picture. … In short, money will sway voting. And it will always be this way. In this sense, money is power, and the powerful want to keep it that way.”
Vice President JD Vance said late last week that he had sympathy for former president Richard M. Nixon and that “if Watergate happened tomorrow, it would be like a 12-hour news story.” “The idea that it would have taken down a presidency is crazy,” Vance said. What do you think? Do you think our view of what is a scandal has changed? What do you think of Vance expressing this view publicly? Let us and your fellow Early Brief readers know at [email protected].
Thanks for reading. You can follow Dan and Matthew on X: @merica and @matthewichoi.
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