Pollsters and GOP groups are raising the alarm about an unmotivated base in an election year that would be tough no matter what, given the president’s low approval.
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Republican pollsters and political groups are raising the alarm that their party faces a listless and demotivated base ahead of November’s midterm elections.
A raft of discouraging data from polling, door knocking and focus groups is unsettling Republicans as their party heads into a midterm election season that would be challenging no matter what, given President Donald Trump’s low standing in polls and the fact that the party in control in Washington almost always loses seats.
The lack of enthusiasm is reaching deep into Republicans’ loyal base, spreading to the party’s most consistent voters — who have shown up to vote in all of the past four primaries and general elections, according to an analysis done by Americans for Prosperity Action, a conservative super PAC that was founded by billionaire Charles Koch. This new issue with the base adds to the party’s more enduring problem of turning out less-frequent voters who support Trump but often skip midterm elections.
About 1 in 5 reliable Republican base voters are at risk this November, according to Nathan Nascimento, executive director at AFP Action. Those voters in Iowa, Ohio, North Carolina, Montana, New Hampshire and Michigan are either saying they may stay home or are weighing voting for Democrats, according to their data, which is based on polling and extensive efforts to engage targeted Republican voters by knocking on their doors. The voters are primarily worried about inflation and the economy.
“This is a big chunk,” Nascimento said. “This is a scary number.”
The group has found that reaching these voters at the door usually moves them toward Republican candidates — or at least away from Democratic ones and toward undecided, he said.
The 20 percent of Republican base voters the group sees this issue with does not take into account low-propensity conservative voters who tend to turn out in general election years to support Trump but skip other elections. Motivating those Trump voters is a separate issue Republicans face in November.
“We have a high-propensity base problem,” Nascimento said.
Washington Post and Ipsos polling shows that Democrats have a 10-percentage-point advantage over Republicans among voters who say they are absolutely certain to vote in November. If that number doesn’t narrow, it could lead to a decisive advantage for Democrats, even though overall they lead by just three percentage points over Republicans on a generic ballot.
Mitchell Brown, a Republican pollster at the firm Cygnal, said Democrats are as enthusiastic about voting as they were at the same time ahead of the 2018 midterm elections, when they swept back into power in the House. But Republicans are far less excited to vote at this point than they were then, posing an issue for the party.
“It’s not that the Democrats are outperforming a topline number that we’d expect, it’s that Republicans are underperforming,” Brown said.
He pinpointed men under 40 as the group that is most at risk among Republican voters, saying they have concerns about the economy and prices. This group proved pivotal to Trump’s 2024 electoral victory, which included a sweep of some of the same battleground states holding critical elections this year.
The decline in support among those voters may change closer to the elections, once more people tune in, Republican strategists stressed. And Trump’s unprecedented redistricting efforts have also sought to give the party a structural advantage that could mitigate GOP losses.
“Republicans are united, on offense, and armed with our largest war chest in party history because voters are energized and understand what’s at stake in November’s election,” said Natalie Baldassarre, a spokeswoman for the Republican National Committee, in a statement.
This dynamic is playing out in the red state of Iowa, where Republicans face open races for governor and a Senate seat that polling shows are surprisingly competitive. A recent door-knocking session in the Des Moines suburb of Urbandale with AFP Action turned up voters critical of the war in Iran and high inflation, with a handful saying they planned to support Democrats in the fall.
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In western Iowa, three-time Trump voter Lance Sulentic, a resident of Iowa’s rural Harrison County, described the past three presidential elections as “the worst three mistakes I’ve ever made in my life,” saying that the president has failed to fulfill his campaign promises. Higher gas prices have been costing him an extra $300 to $500 every month to ride his motorcycle, he said.
“We voted for Trump, and he did the opposite of what he said he was going to do,” said Sulentic, a 56-year-old retired insurance agent. “Gas prices were going to be two dollars, food was going to be cheaper, energy prices was going to be in half, we were going to get two rebate checks to the American people, and we weren’t going to have any new wars, and we were going to build a wall and deport 30 million illegal aliens, and he did none of it.”
He said he would either sit out this year’s election or vote for Democrats.
Republican lawmakers are worried about such comments as their party remains mired in internal disagreements in Washington that have hampered them from passing signature agenda items that could motivate core supporters.
“We need to do something to reenergize our base,” said Sen. Ron Johnson (R-Wisconsin). Johnson, who does not face reelection until 2028, has triumphed in tough races in his closely divided state.
Johnson said GOP base voters may think the lawmakers “haven’t been … trying hard enough.” The party has been unable to pass a law to require ID to vote and proof of citizenship to register to vote called the Save America Act, which Trump has lambasted them for. They also have done little to tackle cost-of-living issues since the bill extending tax cuts in 2025.
A spokesperson for Trump, Abigail Jackson, called the voting legislation a top priority but added that the administration “continues to deliver on the President’s affordability agenda by lowering drug prices, reshoring American jobs, lowering gas prices and more.”
Other senators have pressed Trump to use his large platform and $400 million MAGA Inc. war chest to activate lower-propensity voters. Trump has had far more success motivating supporters when he is on the ballot.
Sen. Kevin Cramer (R-North Dakota) said he told the president in the Oval Office last week that Trump is the key to turning out his voters.
“Well, they will [turn out] if you pass the Save America Act,” Trump retorted, according to Cramer.
The White House is hopeful the Republican Party’s planned midterm convention in September in Texas will help juice enthusiasm among the base as well.
Sen. Thom Tillis (R-North Carolina), who declined to run for reelection in his purple state, said he believes the traditional Republican base will ultimately turn out in November. But he fears the party’s brand has been damaged among moderates by the economy and inflation, and that the Iran war is becoming an additional political drag. Low-propensity Trump voters need to turn out to close that gap, he said.
“The question is whether the coalition he has that’s unique to the president, if he can mobilize them to come out and vote for others,” Tillis said.
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