In today’s edition … Trump is playing a dangerous game with Blanche’s nomination … We ask you about politics as a family business … but first …
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It’s a rough moment for one Donald J. Trump.
The president of the United States is more unpopular than he has ever been, according to a series of polls of American voters ahead of the 2026 midterms.
A Quinnipiac University poll released on Wednesday found just 32 percent of voters approve of the job Trump is doing as president, with 58 percent disapproving and 10 percent not having an opinion. That approval rating is an all-time low for Trump in the university’s poll.
A CNN poll released this week found a remarkably similar trend. The survey found that only 34 percent of Americans approve of the job Trump is doing, compared with a staggering 66 percent who disapprove. This, like the Quinnipiac survey, is the lowest Trump has ever been in CNN’s poll — tied only with the broadcaster’s survey immediately after the Jan. 6, 2021, attack on the Capitol.
And an Associated Press survey released yesterday found just 33 percent of Americans approve of the president, the lowest point of his second term.
So what is behind these numbers?
The first is the economy.
As we have noted throughout this newsletter for months, the economy — from gas prices to the job market — is a significant drag on Trump and Republicans. And the Quinnipiac survey backs this up. Seventy-one percent of voters described the state of the economy as either not so good or poor, compared with just 28 percent who said it was either excellent or good.
This is a remarkable turnaround for Trump, who seized on an economic message in 2024 to retake the White House. He routinely told crowds to think about whether they were better off before President Joe Biden took office, casting the election as a simple decision about whether a voter was better or worse off financially.
The Quinnipiac survey found those sentiments have shifted on the president. Forty-nine percent of voters said they were worse off financially than they were a year ago, while 34 percent said they were better off.
And then there is Trump’s handling of the war in Iran, a conflict he started and repeatedly promised would be short-lived. The war has now entered its sixth month, a stark contrast from Trump’s description in March of the attack as a “short excursion.”
We asked Scott Clement, our standout polling director, why Trump’s poll numbers have become so dire. The culprits? Gas prices and the war.
Are you getting déjà vu? Trump also reached record low points this spring, but he steadily rebounded in June as negotiations progressed towards a June 15 agreement to stop fighting and open the Strait of Hormuz. But Trump declared the ceasefire “OVER” on July 10, gasoline prices rose 32 cents to over $4 a gallon this week and his approval ratings are back at their nadir.
CNN’s poll shows how big of an albatross Iran is around Trump’s neck: 28 percent approve of his handling of the issue (down five points from March) and 74 percent think Trump doesn’t have a clear plan to handle it (up seven points). But high gas prices have also dragged Trump’s ratings for handling the economy — voters’ no. 1 issue in the midterms — from 39 percent in January to 30 percent this month.
Looking to November, Trump’s sagging approval ratings are sapping Republicans’ interest in voting. A Washington Post-Ipsos poll this month found Republicans were 10 points less certain about voting this fall, a gap mostly driven by GOP voters who either disapprove of Trump or approve only “somewhat.” That’s a much different scenario than in 2018, when Trump’s approval ratings were higher, his supporters were more likely to approve of him “strongly,” and Republicans were almost as likely as motivated as Democrats to vote.
So why does this all matter?
First, these numbers explain why Democrats’ midterm message is squarely focused on Trump. This level of disapproval is hard for a party to overcome, even as the map of competitive races nationwide narrows because of redistricting.
“Because Trump and congressional Republicans run Washington together, the most honest, direct way to capitalize on the president’s unpopularity is to tirelessly remind voters that GOP members have been active participants in his most harmful decisions,” said Andrew Bates, a Democratic operative and former Biden aide. “Name Trump, but also name the rubber stamps who’ve been helping him drive up inflation and start new wars despite the needs and outcries of their constituents.”
But then there is the Republican dynamic: How do candidates running with Trump’s backing and his base hold on to that support while also acknowledging the growing antipathy voters have for the job he is doing? In the past, Republicans have run afoul of the president by seeking distance, but some Republicans are hopeful Trump could be more judicious with his criticism this cycle.
“The president seems to be giving a bit more grace to candidates distancing themselves this cycle,” said a Republican operative working on midterm races, noting that outside of a handful of Republicans in primaries, Trump has held his fire on attacking candidates in tough races who have broken with him.
The operative said that they are confident candidates can overcome the Trump polling because the president still maintains a strong hold on his base and the battleground states in these midterms are primarily states that he won two years ago, like Pennsylvania, Michigan and Arizona.
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(Did you enjoy this analysis? Then you should sign up to receive The Post’s new weekly newsletter on public opinion polls, anchored by Scott and launching soon.)
Republicans’ narrow margin in the Senate — and the way that Trump has enraged key Republican senators — is impacting the president’s ability to get things done in the legislative chamber.
On Wednesday, our colleagues Jeremy Roebuck, Theodoric Meyer and Perry Stein reported that the Senate committee considering the acting attorney general Todd Blanche’s bid to become the next attorney general delayed the vote after two retiring Republicans — Sens. John Cornyn (R-Texas) and Thom Tillis (R-North Carolina) — “insisted that the Trump administration limit — in writing — central provisions of a controversial deal struck this spring between the Justice Department and the president to resolve a lawsuit he filed against the IRS over the leak of his tax returns.”
And then yesterday, Trump lashed out at Cornyn and Tillis, but later suggested he could withdraw Blanche’s nomination and put him back up once “Cornyn and Tillis are out of office.”
This will be worth watching for several reasons.
If Trump does withdraw the nomination, it’s the rare instance of the president not getting his way from Republican lawmakers and a clear setback for his administration.
But there is equal risk in Trump betting that the environment after the midterms will be more favorable for him. As we have noted above, his popularity is near all-time lows, and while the odds may not be in Democrats’ favor to take back the Senate, there is a decent chance they narrow the legislative body’s margin after November — meaning Blanche could face an even more hostile Senate if the president pauses the process.
Ohio Capital Journal: Haitians nationwide have been impacted by losing their protected immigration status in the U.S. But the most direct impacts have been felt in Ohio, where there is a large Haitian community. “They’re just terrified for their physical safety,” pastor Carl Ruby said of the possibility of the Haitian immigrants going back to a country in the midst of a humanitarian crisis.
North Carolina Newsline: A nonprofit group connected to lobbyists spent “nearly $80,000 on golfing, a vacation property, strip clubs, and the Carolina Panthers from 2022 to 2024.” No current or former lawmakers are facing consequences for the gifts, leading ethics advocates to push for lawmaker culpability for political junkets.
Spokesman Review: The nation’s national parks have experienced a boom in popularity since the covid-19 pandemic. But how do spaces known for solitude deal with an influx of visitors? It’s an issue at Mt. Rainier National Park in Washington.
We asked you for your response to yesterday’s story on the Montana Senate race, where Alani Bankhead, who is struggling to raise money, is facing pressure from Democratic operatives to drop out to clear the path for independent Seth Bodnar.
We received a variety of responses — from people who think the Democrat should get out to those who think it is ridiculous for Democrats to oppose the nominee who won their primary.
Ken Klotzle wrote, “Do whatever is necessary to deny the Republican the seat.”
“Let the Republicans win,” added Alan Levitt.
And Caroline Karp called the Democratic apprehension with Bankhead “misogyny” and “prejudice.”
“Bodnar should drop out and DNC should back Bankhead,” Karp wrote.
Lynne Sholty, a self-described “lifelong Montanan,” said she will be voting for Bodnar.
Bankhead “has no chance of winning the state. Kurt Alme is just another one of the good old Daines boys, and we need a change,” wrote Sholty.
And Dan Tracy wrote that “party loyalty must give way to what’s in the best interests of the country.”
“If that can more assuredly be achieved by supporting and electing the Independent candidate rather than the Democratic candidate, then that must be the course that is followed,” Tracy concluded.
Trump’s decision to put his weight behind Sen. Darline Graham in her bid to succeed her late brother, Lindsey Graham, for a full term has roiled South Carolina Republicans. “I don’t think that Trump is the end-all, be-all that he used to be,” said CJ Westfall, chairman of the Dorchester County Republican Party, told Natalie Allison. What do you think about family replacing family in Congress? It happens often, but should it? Why or why not? Let us and your fellow Early Brief readers know at [email protected].
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Thanks for reading. You can follow Dan on X at @merica.
