The November midterm elections are right around the corner, which means August is a big month for primaries to pick those candidates.
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Primaries play an increasingly decisive role in American politics because so many congressional districts are gerrymandered for just one party to win. In statewide races like for Senate or governor, primaries either basically determine November’s winner or shape whether a competitive race is winnable. Democrats in particular have an interesting primary month coming up: They could nominate democratic socialists or far-left candidates to run in swing states that voted for President Donald Trump.
“This is going to tell us a lot about the direction of the Democratic Party and be a test of whether the more progressive, further-left candidates — -who seem to be what the party’s base is wanting — can win in more competitive states,” said Jessica Taylor, who analyzes Senate and gubernatorial races for the Cook Political Report with Amy Walter. “This is not Manhattan, this is not Denver. These are progressives running in Michigan and Wisconsin trying to win.”
That test starts today in Michigan. Here’s what to watch for in primaries Tuesday and beyond.
Michigan is a linchpin in Democrats’ hopes to retake the Senate. But some centrist Democrats are worried that if an unapologetic liberal wins Tuesday’s primary — which polls show could happen — it could squander their fortunes.
The liberal is Abdul El-Sayed, a former public health official backed by Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vermont). He supports Medicare-for-all; has campaigned with Hasan Piker, a controversial influencer who has been accused of antisemitism; and has labeled Israel’s actions in Gaza as “genocide.” El-Sayed also calls for abolishing the U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement agency. He is mostly popular with younger voters, but Michigan’s general electorate includes more older voters without a college degree.
The establishment candidate is Haley Stevens, who is a member of Congress and flipped a Republican-held House district in 2018. (She also holds some left-leaning views, such as a public option for health care as opposed to the more liberal position of making health insurance entirely public.) She’s running a more traditional campaign that some liberal voters see as a repeat of elections that lost the party the Senate and White House in 2024.
Michigan is a potentially tricky state for Democrats. Michigan narrowly voted for Trump in 2016 and 2024, in part through his efforts to appeal to the state’s working-class voters.
The state also has a number of competitive Democratic House primaries Tuesday that mirror the liberal-establishment battle in the Senate.
“I’m watching this with increasing concern,” senior Democratic strategist Jim Manley said. “At the start of last year, no one in their right minds thought the Senate was in play for Democrats. But now, in part due to Trump’s spectacular implosion, a lot of these seats are winnable. Except we’re looking at a situation where some of our candidates might be too extreme for the general election.”
If Michigan is a linchpin for Democrats’ hopes in the Senate, Virginia is a major player in their hopes for retaking the House in November. Except, they’ll be trying to do it without an aggressive gerrymander that could have given Democrats 10 out of the state’s 11 congressional seats. (Democrats now hold six seats and Republicans hold five.)
Voters approved Virginia’s gerrymandering, but it got thrown out by the state’s top court before it could go into effect.
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Now Virginia Democrats are hoping to flip at least two GOP seats, which could still help in the overall battle for the House: Republicans can afford to lose only three total seats in November to keep the majority. (Republicans are pretty much guaranteed a couple of extra seats over Democrats now because of gerrymandering, according to calculations by Lou Jacobson, chief author of the 2026 “Almanac of American Politics.”)
Wisconsin is also a state Trump won twice. A democratic socialist is running for governor and has a good shot of winning her party’s nomination next week.
Candidate Francesca Hong is “getting clicks like no one else in the field of five primary candidates,” The Washington Post’s Patrick Marley reports.
Hong, unlike El-Sayed in Michigan, openly aligns with the Democratic Socialists of America party, which calls for universal health care, universal college, universal child care, publicly held housing and a significant increase in the minimum wage.
Democrats, including outgoing Wisconsin Gov. Tony Evers (D), worry she can’t win in November. Taylor says strategists on both sides still see the Wisconsin governor’s race and the Michigan Senate race as competitive because the national environment favors Democrats so much.
“I’m looking at Trump’s approval rating in these states,” said Taylor, with the Cook Political Report.
Another primary next week is Minnesota Democrats’ Senate contest. There’s an open Senate seat in November that Democrats have a good chance of winning, but that could get harder if Democrats nominate a far-left liberal candidate to do it.
Democratic socialists are already planning for how they try to prop up a candidate in the 2028 presidential election, and this August is a big month for them.
“This is a real test of how far the movement has gone, not only within the Democratic Party, but how the swing voter thinks about some of these candidates. It will not only be crucial to 2026, but to 2028 and the presidential race,” Taylor said. “If November comes and you see someone like Francesca Hong win in Wisconsin and Abdul El-Sayed win in Michigan, it would give a lot of momentum to their argument that their message resonates in swing states that have real sway in the electoral college.”
Amber Phillips writes The 5-Minute Fix newsletter, a quick analysis of the day’s biggest political news. Send her an email here, or ask a question that could be featured in an upcoming newsletter.
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