Plus: How can you tell if a poll invitation is legitimate?
This week’s Pollwatcher looks at global opinions on artificial intelligence, a spike in searches on how to vote and guide to telling if poll invitations are legit. But first …
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Election polls are piling up after Labor Day, with many showing large or growing advantages for Democrats. The movement matches a historical pattern of polls shifting against the president’s party during midterm years. But why does this happen? How do voters actually decide whether and for whom to vote in midterm elections, and why do some voters seem to take so long to make their choice?
Let’s start with one of the most common theories: Midterms are a referendum on the president’s performance. There is ample support for this in Election Day exit polls finding about 9 in 10 voters who approved of the president’s performance supported congressional candidates from the president’s party, while about 9 in 10 of those who disapproved of the president supported the other major party.
But the referendum explanation is incomplete. One study of midterms from 1946 to 2006 found “the effect of presidential approval as measured in October is already mainly absorbed by polls as measured in February.” Because approval ratings are baked into the midterm election pie by February, they can’t explain why polls shift against the president’s party as the election gets closer. In addition, the study found that even popular presidents lose seats in midterm elections. This means that something else must dragging the president’s party.
One intriguing explanation is “balancing theory,” proposed in the same long-term political science study. The authors suggested that some voters who are ideologically in between the Republican and Democratic parties vote against the president’s party to bring policy closer to their own preferences. A 2024 study found voters punish Democrats when Congress passes more liberal laws and punish Republicans when they pass more conservative laws, another sign that voters try to push Congress to the middle.
Most voters develop firm opinions on a president during their first year in office, but during midterm elections “they’re taking stock” and steadily moving toward a decision all year, said Christopher Wlezien, a co-author of both studies who spoke with The Post by phone Tuesday. “The simplest way to think of it is that some people start edging closer … ‘Yeah, I’m probably going to vote Democrat.’ There’s probably people moving in the Republican direction [in 2026], just fewer.”
A New York Times-Siena College national poll this month showed a glimpse of this dynamic, with 49 percent of likely voters saying they would rather vote for a candidate who “wants to provide a check on Donald Trump,” rising to 59 percent among political independents. A far smaller 26 percent of all likely voters said they want a candidate who supports President Donald Trump, while 21 percent said it doesn’t matter either way.
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Numerous Pollwatcher readers have asked how they can distinguish real survey invitations from spam and scams, especially for text-message and email surveys. I put the question to members of the American Association for Public Opinion Research, and below are some of the most common answers:
But some genuine polls won’t report a sponsor’s name to avoid biasing participation, which can undermine accuracy. A 2017 Washington Post-Schar School poll before Alabama’s U.S. Senate election did not disclose The Post’s sponsorship at the start of the survey because The Post had broken stories about allegations that Republican candidate Roy Moore had sexually assaulted teenage girls when he was younger, as the story described:
Send your questions, comments and ideas to [email protected].
AI concern is higher in the U.S. than other countries — A Gallup poll conducted from April to July found 36 percent of Americans who were aware of artificial intelligence think it will mostly help people in the U.S., ranking fourth-lowest among 37 countries surveyed. A separate Pew Research survey found the U.S. ranking second among 37 countries in general AI concern, third in concern about both job losses and increasing the gap between the rich and poor. Gallup found countries with the heaviest use of AI were more worried about it, even though individuals who use AI more often are somewhat less worried.
Many Americans just Googled how to vote — Like clockwork, Google searches for “how to vote” spiked on Sept. 15 this year before dropping sharply in the days afterward. Past election years have also seen a surge in searches about how to vote in mid-September before presidential and midterm elections.
AI still ranks as a secondary midterm issue — A CNN poll released this week finds 36 percent of registered voters said data centers and AI are “extremely important” in their vote for Congress. That’s not a small group, but it is far smaller than the percentages of voters prioritizing the economy (68 percent), voting rights and election integrity (61 percent), inflation (60 percent), health care (54 percent) and immigration (50 percent). AI ranks even lower in polls asking voters to name their top problem facing the country or the most common reason for their midterm vote.
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