The Cook Political Report shifted its rating of Minnesota’s U.S. Senate race toward Republicans on Tuesday, another sign that a contest Democrats once expected to win comfortably has become increasingly competitive in the closing weeks of the campaign.
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Cook moved the race between Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan (D) and Republican Michele Tafoya, a former NFL broadcaster, from “Likely Democrat” to “Lean Democrat.”
The shift is an unwelcome development for Democrats, who are trying to regain control of the Senate but now face a competitive race in a state that has long been reliably blue in federal elections.
Minnesota has not elected a Republican to the Senate since Norm Coleman in 2002. This seat has been held by Democrats since Al Franken defeated Coleman in 2008, and in the 2024 presidential election, Kamala Harris carried Minnesota by more than four percentage points.
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But Tafoya, a longtime television sports reporter making her first run for public office, has kept the race close. Recent polls have shown the contest tightening, with some putting the candidates within the margin of error.
The two met Friday for their only scheduled debate, a contentious hour in which Tafoya sought to hold Flanagan responsible for fraud scandals that have plagued Minnesota state programs, while Flanagan repeatedly challenged Tafoya over her ties to President Donald Trump and her shifting positions on several issues.
The race is for the seat held by Sen. Tina Smith (D), who is not seeking reelection.
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