New Hampshire has emerged as a surprise battleground for control of the Senate ahead of the midterms, complicating Democratic hopes of flipping the chamber.
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The nonpartisan election analysis site Cook Political Report changed its rating of the race to succeed retiring Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D) from “Lean Democratic” to “Toss Up.” The shift is a rare positive development for Republicans as evidence mounts that Democrats are positioned for major victories in the midterms, including polls showing a sizable advantage over Republicans.
An August poll from the University of New Hampshire found Republican John E. Sununu leading four-term Rep. Chris Pappas (D) 45 percent to 43 percent. Sununu, the son of former governor John H. Sununu, served in the Senate from 2003 to 2009.
Republicans benefit from having a strong candidate from a famous political family, a popular Republican governor running at the top of the ticket and GOP groups planning to spend tens of millions on advertising, Cook analyst Jessica Taylor wrote.
Democrats are hoping to flip four Republican seats to gain control of the Senate. But this path requires holding other competitive seats under Democratic control, including in Georgia, Michigan and New Hampshire.
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Democrats are optimistic about their chances in New Hampshire, which Democrat Kamala Harris won in 2024 and where President Donald Trump is unpopular.
The race could shift back in Democrats’ favor before Election Day, Cook cautioned. “The central question in the race is whether Sununu’s brand is enough to escape the anchor of a deeply unpopular President Donald Trump,” Taylor wrote.
Cook now lists seven toss-up Senate races and favors Democrats to flip Republicans’ seat in North Carolina.
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