The unprecedented test of a nuclear-capable submarine-launched missile highlights Beijing’s growing force in the region.
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China fired a long-range missile from a nuclear-powered submarine deep into the Pacific Ocean on Monday, its first known demonstration of a sea-based strategic nuclear strike capability, raising alarm among U.S. allies.
Countries in the region, including Japan, Australia and New Zealand, were notified shortly before the test, in which a missile carrying a dummy warhead was launched at 12:01 p.m. Beijing time, according to Chinese officials and state media. It was not immediately clear whether the Chinese government also notified the United States ahead of time.
“This test launch complies with international law and international practice and is not directed at any specific country or target,” Senior Cap. Wang Xuemeng, spokesman for the People’s Liberation Army Navy, said in a social media posting. It’s unclear where in the Pacific the missile landed.
The launch marks a significant step in Beijing’s push to build a nuclear triad: the ability to deliver nuclear weapons from land, air and sea. China last year publicly displayed its land-, sea- and air-based long-range missiles together for the first time during a military parade marking the 80th anniversary of the end of World War II.
In 2024, the PLA launched a land-based intercontinental ballistic missile that traveled about 7,300 miles to waters near French Polynesia. With Monday’s submarine launch, Beijing now has only to demonstrate the air-based leg of its nuclear triad.
The test drew swift condemnation from U.S. allies, who warned it posed a dangerous risk to regional stability.
“Destabilizing acts can lead to miscalculation, can lead where we do not want these actions to lead,” said Australian Foreign Minister Penny Wong. She said the test came in the “context of a rapid military buildup by China, which is lacking in the transparency and reassurance as to intent.”
Japan said it strongly urged Beijing to reconsider after being notified of the test, while New Zealand Foreign Minister Winston Peters condemned the launch, saying it was “not consistent with regional stability.”
The test coincided with the signing of a mutual defense pact between Australia and Fiji, and came as the United States is hosting the Rim of the Pacific (RIMPAC) military exercise in Hawaii involving more than 30 nations.
China was disinvited from the annual exercise in 2018 over its militarization of the South China Sea. On Monday, PLA media outlets issued a sharp rebuke of this year’s drills, calling them “provocative.”
If China declined to warn the United States of Monday’s long-range test, it would mark a break from precedent: Beijing gave Washington advance notice before its 2024 ICBM test.
The State Department and the Pentagon did not immediately respond to requests for comment Monday.
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Analysts say that while the test poses a more immediate threat to countries in the Indo-Pacific region, the launch probably was intended as a signal to the United States.
“I think that the Chinese strategy is to explicitly showcase strategic nuclear capabilities to impress upon the United States China’s growing strategic power. In Beijing’s view, that would make Washington more aware of the risk of getting involved in major conflict with China,” said Tong Zhao, an expert on China’s nuclear weapons program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, a Washington think tank.
Zhao said the missile’s flight path near U.S. missile-tracking facilities in Guam and the Marshall Islands added weight to the view that the launch was meant as a signaling exercise. “The fact that the Chinese missile flew near those places means Beijing is not particularly worried about the technical parameters of the missile being collected by the United States,” he said.
The test comes amid a period of relative détente in U.S.-China relations. President Donald Trump downplayed the risk of war with China over Taiwan following a May meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping, despite Xi’s warning that mishandling the issue could lead to “conflicts.”
“The last thing we need right now is a war that’s 9,500 miles away,” Trump said at the time. Ahead of the meeting, the White House paused a $14 billion arms package intended for Taiwan and still has not approved the deal, unnerving Taipei.
The PLA did not confirm which type of missile was fired, though analysts and Chinese state media outlets point to either the JL-2 or the newer JL-3, China’s top-of-the-line submarine-launched intercontinental ballistic missiles.
The JL series of submarine-launched missiles has an estimated range of roughly 5,000 to 8,000 miles, making them capable of striking major U.S. cities from parts of the Pacific, depending on where they are deployed.
The test comes as Beijing expands its military reach deeper into the Indo-Pacific region. Last year, Chinese vessels conducted live-fire exercises off Australia’s coast, and in January it staged its largest-ever live-fire drills around Taiwan after U.S. approval of an $11 billion arms package.
Analysts say Monday’s test differs because its display of long-range nuclear deterrence probably was intended to show that Beijing could retaliate against the United States in the event of a nuclear attack during a conflict over Taiwan or the South China Sea.
“This is not something they would use against Taiwan or against probably any regional countries. They would be using it against the U.S.,” said Lyle Morris, a senior fellow at the Asia Society Policy Institute in Washington.
In China, state media and social media users hailed the successful launch, while the Foreign Ministry appeared to caution against reading too much into Beijing’s intentions.
“It is hoped that relevant countries won’t overinterpret it,” Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Mao Ning said.
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