Americans prefer Democrats to Republicans in the congressional midterm elections by only a slim margin, but Democratic supporters are far more motivated to vote, according to a Washington Post-Ipsos poll.
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Because of partisan redistricting that favors Republicans this year, analysts estimate that Democrats need to win by three to four percentage points overall to gain a majority in the House. The poll shows Democrats leading Republicans by about that margin, 48 percent to 45 percent.
The blue advantage grows to eight points among those “absolutely certain to vote,” with 53 percent of highly motivated voters supporting Democrats and 45 percent supporting Republicans.
Republicans are not losing by a wide margin among the broader electorate despite President Donald Trump’s deep unpopularity and broad concerns about the economy, the war with Iran and immigration issues.
But their supporters just aren’t as energized to turn up at the polls, the Post-Ipsos poll suggests. If Trump is able to mitigate some top concerns by Election Day — for example, by bringing down the price of gasoline or ending the war with Iran — then his push to draw new congressional districts in red states could be enough to retain the GOP majority in the House.
Democrats’ hopes of flipping the House hinge on a more enthusiastic base, which is evident in the poll and in the party’s strong turnout in recent primaries and special elections.
The Post-Ipsos survey offers mixed signs for Democrats compared with the polling ahead of the 2018 midterm in Trump’s first term, when Democrats gained 40 House seats in a blue wave.
That year, Democrats had a 10-point lead in support for Congress in Post-ABC polls of registered voters, compared with Democrats’ three-point edge this month. But the enthusiasm gap is greater now.
Democrats are 10 points more likely to be certain to vote this year than Republicans, larger than their two-point edge in 2018. And more than 7 in 10 Democrats say it is “more important” to vote in 2026 than in previous midterm elections, compared with just over half of Republicans.
Americans are also more worried about their finances than they were eight years ago. This year, 40 percent of registered voters say they are “not as well off” as when Trump took office, compared with 13 percent who said the same in November 2018.
The economy is by far the top issue among voters, with 54 percent citing it and nearly 1 in 5 mentioning prices or affordability when asked to name the three most important factors in their midterm vote.
Voters give Trump clearly negative marks for their three top midterm issues, with more than 6 in 10 disapproving of his handling of the economy and Iran and 56 percent disapproving of his handling of immigration.
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Registered voters split down the middle when asked overall which party they agree with more on important issues: 41 percent choose Republicans while 40 percent choose Democrats. Republicans have a four-point edge on trust to handle the economy. Democrats lead by the same margin when asked which party “is more concerned with the needs of people like you.”
About 1 in 5 voters trust neither Democrats nor Republicans to handle the economy, including 20 percent of voters who rank it as a top issue.
While the economy is a top issue regardless of partisan affiliation, Democrats are more likely than Republicans and independents to focus on prices and inflation specifically.
Republicans are about twice as likely as Democrats to say immigration is important in their vote, with independents closer to Democrats on this issue. Republicans are also more likely to focus on taxes and crime, while Democrats are more focused on health care and abortion, as well as equality, women’s rights and racism.
Trump again looms large in the midterms with an overall approval rating at 37 percent among U.S. adults and 40 percent among registered voters.
Republicans who love Trump and Democrats who loathe him are the most likely to vote, but the latter group is much bigger.
The poll finds 45 percent of Republican voters approve of Trump strongly compared with 83 percent of Democrats who disapprove strongly. More than 8 in 10 voters in each group are certain to vote.
Those who support Trump only “somewhat” are less likely to vote than those who say they strongly support the president. And those Republicans who disapprove of Trump’s performance say they are even less likely to show up at the polls.
Read detailed results of the Washington Post-Ipsos poll. The poll was conducted online July 8-13 among 2,648 U.S. adults nationwide reached through the Ipsos KnowledgePanel, an ongoing panel of U.S. households recruited by mail using random sampling methods. Overall results have a margin of error of plus or minus 1.9 percentage points; the error margin is 2.2 points among the sample of 2,092 registered voters. The sample was weighted to match population demographics, 2024 turnout/vote choice and political partisanship.
Open-ended responses were classified by BTInsights, an AI open-end coding software. Each survey response was reviewed by a Post polling team member to ensure it was accurately categorized and, if necessary, recategorized. Category names were also edited after a review of all codes within each group.
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