Republicans won the redistricting war in Virginia, but several lawmakers remain vulnerable.
Read more Narváez wins his second Giro d’Italia stage and Eulálio keeps the overall lead
Even after a Supreme Court ruling on Friday put a final stop to Democratic efforts to redraw Virginia’s congressional maps, the state will remain central to the party’s battle to win control of the House in November.
Virginia voters last month approved a map that would have given Democrats a leg up in 10 of the state’s 11 districts.
The Virginia Supreme Court threw that map out earlier this month, and the U.S. Supreme Court on Friday left that decision in place. The rulings were widely viewed as a major defeat for Democrats.
The current maps, which led to the election of six Democrats and five Republicans, will remain in place for this year’s congressional elections.
Yet independent observers and members of both parties believe one or more seats in the state could flip from red to blue, given President Donald Trump’s low approval ratings, historical trends and some factors specific to the state’s candidates and districts.
“We have a chance to pick up one or two seats — perhaps three — and we can hold on to the six seats we have in Virginia,” Rep. Suhas Subramanyam (D-Virginia) said in an interview earlier this week. “We don’t have an even playing field. So we have to go on overdrive now.”
A game of musical chairs among Democrats that followed the court rulings has left some candidates switching districts and others suspending their campaigns entirely.
Rising dissatisfaction with Trump creates an opening in districts where Trump won narrowly, Subramanyam said.
Jeff Ryer, the Virginia GOP chairman, said it was “a long time from now until November” and changing political winds could also work to favor Republicans. All five Republican-held districts voted “no” on the referendum to redraw the state’s maps.
But he said he expects hard-fought races.
“There are going to be competitive races to cover in Virginia this year, and that’s good news for Virginians,” he said.
Republicans hold a 217-212 House majority, with five vacancies and one independent. Republicans are ahead in a nationwide race to redraw maps, and could gain a net advantage in as many as 10 or more seats by the November midterm elections.
Here is what to look out for in House districts across Virginia. You can search your address with the Virginia Public Access Project to look up your district.
Rep. Jen Kiggans (R) is among the most vulnerable incumbents in the House this year — and gives Democrats one of their best opportunities to flip a red seat. Gov. Abigail Spanberger (D) carried this Virginia Beach district by about seven percentage points last year, and the nonpartisan elections site Sabato’s Crystal Ball considers it a “toss-up.”
A crowded Democratic field is led by former congresswoman Elaine Luria, who represented the area for two terms before losing to Kiggans in 2022. Other Democratic candidates include physician Nila Devanath and former USAID official Patrick Mosolf.
Read more St. Pauli and Heidenheim relegated on Bundesliga’s last day, Wolfsburg gets another chance
The 2nd District might also hold clues for broader control of the House: The party that wins this bellwether seat has ended up winning the majority in every election from 2008 on.
Rep. Rob Wittman (R) stands on safer ground in his Northern Neck and suburban Richmond district but could still face a tough race. Voters here elected Trump by about five percentage points in 2024 but then went for Spanberger by about two percentage points last year.
Multiple candidates are pitching themselves as the right Democrat to oust Wittman, but national party heavyweights have been coalescing around Shannon Taylor, the top prosecutor in Henrico County, a Richmond suburb. She lost the Democratic primary for attorney general last year. Other candidates include Salaam Bhatti and Mel Tull, both lawyers.
This district has not historically been competitive, but the rapidly blue-trending Richmond suburbs have changed that. Sabato’s Crystal Ball considers this a seat that “leans Republican.”
Rep. John McGuire (R) might not normally be considered a vulnerable GOP incumbent. His district in Central Virginia went for Trump by about 12 percentage points in 2024.
But former congressman Tom Perriello, the leading Democratic candidate in this year’s race, managed to narrowly win much of the area in 2008, when he represented a similar district in the House for one term before losing reelection. He went on to serve in the Obama administration and run for governor before jumping back into politics after Democratic lawmakers moved to redraw Virginia’s maps.
The current political environment could create a similar situation if Democrats manage to build a wave election, though chances are less than favorable: Sabato’s Crystal Ball labels it a “likely Republican” seat.
Rep. Ben Cline (R), who represents the Northern Shenandoah Valley, is perhaps the biggest beneficiary of the Supreme Court ruling.
His seat, which would have been carved up into various blue districts, voted for Trump by 24 percentage points. Sabato’s Crystal Ball calls it a “safe Republican” district.
That won’t stop some Democrats from trying to unseat him. The leading candidate to do so is Beth Macy, a journalist and the best-selling author of “Dopesick,” who has positioned herself as a voice for Appalachian communities.
This district in the Fredericksburg area is Democrats’ biggest wild card — and Republicans’ best chance to play offense.
The first-term incumbent is Rep. Eugene Vindman (D), who succeeded Spanberger in Congress. Kamala Harris carried this district over Trump by about three percentage points.
State Sen. Tara Durant (R-Stafford) is among the many GOP candidates angling to compete against Vindman. But the heavy tailwinds boosting Democrats this year, in an area full of federal workers hit by Trump administration layoffs, could make that harder.
The state’s six other incumbents are unlikely to have competitive races.
Rep. Morgan Griffith (R) represents the state’s reddest district in Southwest Virginia, while most Democrats — Robert C. “Bobby” Scott in Hampton Roads; Jennifer McClellan in Richmond and Southside Virginia; and Don Beyer, Subramanyam and James Walkinshaw in Northern Virginia — are on turf that is expected to stay blue.
Read more Michael Kim uses a fast start to charge up the leaderboard in 3rd round of PGA Championship
